Could Israel be headed toward a fifth election? The drama ahead of the March 23 vote has stepped up a notch, with the left-wing and right-wing blocs tied with a projected 60 seats apiece.
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The Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll, conducted by Maagar Hamohot Institute under Professor Yitzhak Katz, used a large sample of 2,087 respondents and had only a 2.1% margin of error.
The results showed that if the election were held today, the Likud under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win 29 seats, followed by Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid with 18 seats. The poll showed Netanyahu having the more stable bloc, but the narrow gap between him and Lapid indicates that there is virtually no possibility that either Naftali Bennett or Gideon Sa'ar will be tapped to form the next government.
The poll projected 29 seats for Likud, 18 for Yesh Atid, and 10 seats each for Bennett's Yamina, Sa'ar's New Hope, and the Joint Arab List.
When it comes to how certain respondents were of how they would be voting, Sa'ar's situation improved, with 59% of those who said he was their preferred candidate saying they would definitely vote for him, compared to 57% of Yamina supporters who said they were certain about how they would be voting.
Shas was projected to win nine seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu with eight and United Torah Judaism with seven.
Left-wing parties Labor and Meretz were each projected to win five seats, followed by the Religious Zionist Party, also with a projected five seats, and Blue and White with four seats – just skimming the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%.
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Neither Mansour Abbas' Ra'am Party nor Yaron Zelikha was projected to make it past the minimum threshold.
However, the parties at the bottom of the list appeared to have more determined supporters: 83% of respondents who preferred Meretz said they were certain they would vote; 74% of Blue and White supporters said they were certain about their vote; and 71% of Religious Zionist supporters and Labor supporters said they were certain about casting their ballots.
Not even two-thirds of respondents said they would definitely be voting. Only 62% said they would definitely vote on March 23, with another 23% saying there was a "strong chance" they would vote. Another 4% said there was a "middling" chance they would vote, and 11% said the chances they would vote were slim.
When asked when they would make a final decision about whom to vote for, 40% of respondents said they would decide in the next few days. Over a third (36%) said they would decide on Election Day. Another 21% said they didn't know, and 3% said they thought they wouldn't vote at all.
When asked who was the best candidate to serve as prime minister, 45% picked Netanyahu, and 25% picked Lapid, followed by 13% who said Gideon Sa'ar, 12% who said Bennett, and only 5% who picked Gantz.
