The 2021 elections once again underscore how much Israeli politicians need a lesson in humility. Those who declared themselves kingmakers dared to dream aloud about power-sharing deals, and those who behaved contemptuously towards the smaller parties that seemed to teeter on the brink of the electoral threshold, were cut down to size by the voters and will spend their term as the smaller parties in the Knesset. To say nothing of the anti-Netanyahu protesters who were made to learn that over half of the Israeli public was very much pro-the prime minister.
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Despite the consensus of Israel's three major news outlets, whose exit polls named the right-wing bloc as the victor and promised that the next government will be a "full-fledged right-wing government," it is best to be wise and wait for the final results. Too much is riding on the smaller parties and they can change the balance of power dramatically.
Looking at the current results, the fact that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to reaching the 61-seat majority necessary to form a government means he should remain open to including rivals New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz on the coalition. They may surprise him and agree.
The smaller parties cannot be ignored, either. With most looking at five or six mandates, they will be key elements in the composition of both the coalition and the opposition. It would be unwise to be dismissive of them.
The only objective figure in the elections – the low voter turnout – has already become political fodder and has undergone countless manipulations and spins, until it reached the public.
However, learning from past mistakes, both Netanyahu and Lapid are hedging their bets, especially given the uncertainty still surrounding the smaller parties.
As of Wednesday morning, with 87% of the votes counted Ra'am was able to cross the electoral threshold, dramatically rattling the results. Gantz was also able to defeat projections, delivering eight seats for Blue and White rather than seeing it crash and burn.
The same can be said of Meretz, which evaded political annihilation and won five seats.
New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, however, was dealt an electoral blow. The party, which coming out of the gate was projected to win 18 seats but steadily slipped in the polls leading to the elections, secured only six mandates.
This is not surprising given that New Hope has no electoral base and ran a mediocre campaign. Even the six seats Sa'ar won can be attributed mostly to media sympathy.
Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas and Ashkenazi counterpart United Torah Judaism maintained their power and plan to go about their business.
The question now is what will Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas do. His rapprochement with Netanyahu caused a rift in the Joint Arab List and saw Ra'am splinter from the alliance, but this does not guarantee he will endorse Netanyahu for prime minister when the time comes to meet on the matter with President Reuven Rivlin.
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