Since Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi won last month's elections, hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran have dimmed considerably.
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Indeed, news of the resumption of nuclear negotiations in Vienna between Iran and representatives of the world powers signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement no longer dominate the headlines, mostly over the lack of concrete breakthroughs so far in the previous six rounds of negotiations.
Despite the chances of reaching a formula for agreement on the US return to the deal in exchange for the Iranian regime's resumption of its commitments to the agreement, and to cease continued violations of its provisions, Raisi's victory fuels the scenario of failed negotiations and leads some to build expectations that the Vienna negotiations will falter.
What remains after the six rounds are the key issues that require major concessions and strong political will, whether from the US or the mullah regime. The US was willing to make concessions to the ayatollahs' regime before Raisi was elected.
But the US was unlikely to simply make these concessions at the end of Hassan Rouhani's term, lest he fail to convince the rest of the regime of what had been agreed upon. This puts the US side in a critical position both internally and externally, especially in front of its Middle East allies, who are opposed to the US return to the nuclear deal as is, mainly Israel.
All indications are that the Biden administration has chosen to wait until Rouhani is gone to explore the nature of the Iranian scene in the next phase, even though it is convinced that it is the Iranian Supreme Leader who holds the leadership and directs the compass of his country's foreign policy.
At the same time, however, the admin is aware that Khamenei likes to play the role game and must wait for the coming of his chosen candidate to lead the next stage of the scene to decide whether or not to make concessions. The US strategic view of not rushing to make concessions to incumbent President Hassan Rouhani may be correct.
The latter will not be able to push through a deal or get the approval of the Supreme Leader or the Shura Council in the context of an increasingly radical Iranian political scene, and the willingness of hawkish politicians to show the failure of reformists to manage the Iranian nuclear issue.
So, any deal formula that would have been reached in Vienna will not be accepted in Tehran until President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office on Aug. 8. Rouhani, for his part, is seeking at this stage to take off the robe of moderation and to move closer to the positions of the hardliners.
He has even threatened to enrich uranium to as much as 90 percent, a position that even the regime's most radical leaders have never mused about. Rouhani wants to push the US to resolve the Vienna negotiations so that he can conclude his second term with a new deal on the nuclear issue.
He also wants to cozy up to the hardline movement, which accuses him of inaction and concessions to the West at the expense of Iran's strategic interests. What if Washington agrees to concessions to President Rouhani before leaving office out of fear that negotiation efforts with hardliners will fail? This scenario is, of course, possible.
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But it remains subject to American strategic thinking. Certainly, if the scenario comes to pass, it will show an unprecedented misjudgment in timing. It would have been better to take the initiative to conclude this agreement before the Iranian presidential elections, even if the reformists did not. The opportunity at that time was present to give Rouhani strong leverage to present any reformist candidate.
In sum, the resolution of the Vienna negotiations will likely await the dust settling on Raisi's inauguration, however, there is a non-trivial possibility that the negotiations will reach a stalemate from the US perspective if Washington becomes convinced of the difficulty of reaching an agreement with the hardline Iranian mainstream.
Salem al-Ketbi is an Emirati political analyst and a former candidate to the UAE's Federal National Council.
