As Iran and world powers discuss a potential return to a nuclear accord in Vienna, Israel Hayom spoke with senior Stimson Center research fellow and former deputy director at the International Atomic Energy Agency Dr. Ollie Heinonen to learn what he believes such a deal must include.
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"We do not know yet the details on the possible nuclear deal," Heinonen noted. "However, many aspects of the Iranian nuclear program have changed since 2015 when the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the official term for the Iran nuclear deal] was negotiated."
He said that to ensure all long-term routes to nuclear weapon capability are "effectively and verifiably blocked some additional provisions need to be incorporated into the new deal by amending it or by adding a separate legally binding protocol to it."
"Nuclear weapons system consists of three elements: fissile material, nuclear warhead, and delivery vehicle," Heinonen explained.
Referring to Israel's operation to secure an Iranian archive of material on its nuclear program, Heinonen said: "Nuclear archives obtained in 2018 revealed that Iran had worked simultaneously in the AMAD [military] plan with all these three elements. Iran was designing, building, operating, and afterward dismantling some facilities, which were also for nuclear material, under this plan. It is not known whether all these experiments and single-use equipment have been dismantled and what happened with nuclear material used or reserved for those experiments."
Heinonen emphasized it was important for any new arrangement to include "provisions to provide assurances that those activities have, indeed, been terminated, facilities dismantled, and all nuclear material has been placed under the IAEA safeguards. This verification and subsequent long-term monitoring has to cover all three elements: fissile material production, design, and [the] manufacturing of nuclear warheads and ballistic and cruise missiles."
He noted the "JCPOA was designed with a one-year breakout time in mind. With the nuclear advances of Iran, the breakout time will become four to six months. In case of a breakout," the international community would have a much shorter window of opportunity to respond "should Iran decide to take such a step. This is why new arrangements covering all aspects of a weapons system are indispensable if success" is what negotiators are after.
"Last, but not least," Heinonen said, "restrictions to be included in the revised JCPOA should not be lifted automatically as stipulated by the current JCPOA. Instead," he said, "Iran's performance and adherence to the agreement should be reviewed at regular intervals and restrictions lifted based on the performance and actual needs of the civilian nuclear program."
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