While the Gaza Strip was quiet overnight Sunday, the northern border was restive. While southern Lebanon is Hezbollah territory, Palestinian groups have always had a foothold there. In recent years, Hamas has been making a special effort to entrench itself in south Lebanon, mostly in terms of developing its military capabilities there, along with the Gaza Strip.
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Israel is concerned about Hamas' attempts to develop military capabilities and precision missiles in southern Lebanon. The backing it receives from Hezbollah and Iran are helping the group establish itself there. The fact that Lebanon is mired in a deep socioeconomic and political crisis that affects every aspect of the country's life is making it easier for Hamas to build its military capabilities and improve its readiness for a possible conflict with Israel as part of its "an open battle between the resistance and Israel."
Hamas' man in this zone is Salah al-Arouri, a senior official in Hamas abroad, who moves on the Turkey-Lebanon-Syria axis. Arouri handles the group's relation with Iran and keeps in close contact with Hezbollah. Hamas' attempts to gain a foothold in Lebanon would not have borne fruit if it hadn't been for support from Arouri's ally, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
There's also the Turkish connection. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's warming relations with Israel have put Hamas under new restrictions. The group was used to operating freely in Turkish territory and saw the country as a convenient place to recruit operatives and money. But Ankara's new attitude toward Israel have led Hamas to conclude that it cannot put blind trust in Turkey and that it has to seek out other options in order to keep its activity abroad going.
One of these arenas is southern Lebanon. Hamas is keeping the zone on a back burner, and sometimes drags it into the fight. Recently, the power of Hamas' top leadership echelon abroad has increased, in contrast to that of the Hamas leadership in Gaza. There have always been tensions between Hamas "at home" and abroad, and these might still exist. But currently, regardless of questions about who launched what rocket, the occasional rocket fire from southern Lebanon – as long as it does not spark a broader conflict – is serving the interests of Hamas in Gaza, which is under the leadership of Yahya Sinwar.
Hamas wants to keep Israel in a state of constant alert and bring as many zones as possible into its war without leaving clear traces. The organization's tactics include moving the clashes from one area to another, and it will probably try to bring Judea and Samaria into the conflict the more pressure it finds itself under in Gaza.
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