By invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to turn it into a neutral country, such as Finland and Sweden which have until now refrained from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But the devastating war – in its 78th day – has led to a complete reversal of the two Scandinavian countries' policies.
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As a direct result of the invasion, Helsinki and Oslo are about to relinquish their neutrality and officially join NATO, a major shift for both nations who have a long-standing history of wartime neutrality and staying out of military alliances.
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced the decision on Thursday morning, urging the Finnish parliament to apply to join the military alliance "without delay."
"NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security," the two said in a joint statement, stressing that "as a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance."
The announcement is essentially a directive for the Finnish parliament to act immediately and not delay what seems inevitable, especially given that Finnish support for joining NATO has jumped from 20% to a record 76%, according to the latest polls.
After Finland joins the alliance, it will be a NATO country sharing the longest border with Russia, and as such will be the main frontier vis-à-vis Moscow.
The border between the two countries is known for its bloody history. In November 1939 – three months after the outbreak of World War II – the Soviet Union invaded Finland after Helsinki refused to cede territory. A three-month war followed, during which Finland turned to Nazi Germany for assistance, making Helsinki and Berlin allies.
Although the Finns exhibited impressive military capabilities, the defeat of Nazi Germany almost turned their country into Russia's protectorate, which is where Finland's neutrality originates from. And although this neutrality has been challenged consistently since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it now appears to be at its end.
Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO will only add to Russia's feeling of being besieged by the West, which was the reason for the invasion in the first place. And although this process might take a whole year – as it requires approval by all NATO members – the alliance and Britain have already assured the two Scandinavian countries that they will be protected should Russia launch an offensive against them.
Putin has previously warned that Poland and Sweden joining NATO would have "consequences," but given the Russian military's mediocre performance in Ukraine, it is doubtful whether Moscow has the capabilities to carry out its threats.
At the same time, increased pressure from the West on Russia only reinforces the Kremlin's "Samson syndrome." The question now is whether the West will succeed in overthrowing Putin's rule – as the US seeks – before Russia's top brass decided to pick up the pace and expand the war efforts dramatically.
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