It has been 49 days since Yamina MK Idit Silman resigned from the coalition. Taking the fragility of the coalition into account, it would appear that Silman's move has accomplished the very opposite of what she had hoped to achieve, at least in the short term. It is now the opposition and not the coalition that must worry about their lawmakers potentially jumping ship.
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Don't get it twisted. Starting with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, everyone in the coalition knows the house of cards could come crashing down. It is precisely because everyone in the coalition understands that they are dependent on one another that they are coming together to an even greater extent.
The big winner in all this is the right-wing flank of the coalition government. Silman's resignation made clear to both Yamina party members and their left-wing partners in government that they will no longer play the role of doormat. Yamina MK Nir Orbach secured two out of three of his demands: the cancellation of plans to revoke daycare subsidies for yeshiva students, the approval of construction in Judea and Samaria, and connecting fledgling settlements to the electricity grid.
At the same time, it is not by chance that the prime minister is now veering rightward once again. Having given up hope on garnering the support of the general public, Bennett is now attempting to win back the people who got him into politics in the first place. If Bennett does indeed plan to return to his political home, he has a long way to go. In this effort, he will need to address the sense of betrayal felt by a majority of his constituents.
Another effect of Silman's resignation is the return of New Hope member Ze'ev Elkin. Despite his vast experience and proven political successes, Silman was not interested in Elkin's help and preferred to go it largely alone. On the other hand, the more modest and direct Coalition Chairman Boaz Toporovsky is not ashamed to rely on the experienced wolf in the wood that is the Joint Arab List to keep the government intact. In addition, Foreign Minister and Prime Minister-designate Yair Lapid has ordered Toporovsky to obey every one of Elkin's commands. This close cooperation is even more impressive given that Bennett, Elkin, and Lapid represent three different political parties.
Everyone in the coalition knows that if they topple the government, then the leader of the other side will become the transitional prime minister. Given the prevailing political tie in Israel, coalition members know a transitional government could serve here for many years to come. So, for the right-wing flank of the coalition, there is no greater nightmare than crowning Lapid leader for an unknowable amount of time. The Left has the same concerns about Bennett.
"The threat is always in the back of coalition members' minds," one of the main players in the Knesset sad. "Until Silman's resignation, the atmosphere was one of cooperation …." He said while coalition members are still interested in working together, "in the background, there are constant concerns the other side is only interested in sticking it to me so that I and not they are the ones to lead to the dissolution. In the meantime, these two parallel lines are gaining strength," the senior lawmaker said.
The question is how long can the government hang on under the spotlight? There are those in the coalition who optimistically believe they will be able to remain in power until April 2024. However, the consensus, at least among Bennett's close associates, is that the coalition could dissolve in a matter of weeks. Since this is Israeli politics we're talking about, only a fool would pretend to know how this will turn out in the end.
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