On July 13, in less than three weeks, Air Force 1 will land at Ben Gurion Airport, launching the 46th US President's first trip to the Middle East. Even though visits of US presidents to the Holy Land have become somewhat of a routine since Richard Nixon first visited Israel on June 16, 1974, this visit is considered a precedent, as his main interlocutor in Jerusalem will be Yair Lapid, due to be the interim prime minister until the upcoming elections.
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Despite the fact that he will be a "lame duck" from the moment he enters Balfour, and he is highly unlikely to gain public approval for his new status until the election date, Biden has chosen not to change the route of his tour. Thus, Lapid, by virtue of the President's consent to meet with him, will gain official American recognition, as if he were a "regular" prime minister, with the potential for effective rule on all levels and not just as an interim prime minister.
It seems that the profound sense of resentment and suspicion – that developed between Vice President Biden (during the Obama administration) and then-Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Netanyahu's close "friendship" with Biden's bitter rival, former President Trump – were the basis for the decision to send this message of support to one of the leaders of the "political change" in Israel.
Despite the fact that the American-Israeli ties are replete with US attempts to "cross the lines" and influence the results of Knesset elections, this is the first time that a president and his close associates are striving to show support for a transitional government in the midst of a severe political crisis, in light of the upcoming elections, in addition to the fact that the president will not be arriving in Jerusalem bearing an extravagant gift package, in the form of the Sharm el-Sheikh conference on the war on terror (which President Clinton convened in March 1996 to help Shimon Peres's election campaign), the visit will still provide a supportive international cover; a renewed and renovated version of the "Periphery Alliance" from the late 1950s, but the current partners (who will convene for a virtual summit during the visit) will be the leaders of India and the United Arab Emirates. This is when the American leadership intends to play the role of senior partner and operational contractor.
In addition, it is expected that the visit will be doused with promises and gifts towards Israel, including a willingness to intensify US strategic cooperation in intelligence and technology, including assisting in the development of advanced air defense systems, to help it face security challenges from Tehran and the avoidance of presenting new plans for any arrangement with the Palestinians (which will definitely disappoint Abu Mazen, head of the Palestinian Authority, with whom Biden will meet at the end of his visit to Israel).
Undoubtedly, these gifts of candy and temptations are also connected to the soon-to-be-renewed negotiations with Iran on nuclear issues and intend to calm Jerusalem in face of the possibility of signing a "second Treaty of Vienna."
The Iranian threat, hovering in the background of the Jerusalem tour, is also closely tied to its Saudi side, which is the highlight of the entire trip. Not only is the US administration striving to dispel concern in the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, regarding US abandonment following the danger posed by Iran, mainly in light of the resumption of nuclear negotiations with Tehran – but it seeks, first and foremost, to resume friendlier relations with Saudi Arabia, after the icy era of deep stagnation that marked the outset of Biden's tenure, and in light of the rise in oil prices, following sanctions imposed on Russian oil exports after the invasion of Ukraine.
Therefore, this rise in prices has contributed to the current inflationary whirl, which is unbearable for Biden's political status, unless it is swiftly halted.
So, as his political ranking in the polls continues to drop (and he now has only 36% support), the 46th president is surrendering unconditionally under the guise of participating in the Jeddah Summit and in trying to promote the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel (as part of the attempt to expand and upgrade the Abraham Agreements). This, while the real purpose of the visit is to improve his party's dismal situation as he approaches midterm elections to Congress in November.
This, of course, is provided that his sworn rival of late, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, approves a further increase in black gold output, which could calm the energy market and alleviate Biden's political misery. In the face of new political, economic and energy circumstances, Bin Salman has transformed from an undesirable personality to a sought-after target to be rigorously courted by the US President, who has no reluctance to travel as far as Riyadh and Jeddah. Very soon, it will become evident if the president was indeed able to promote the main goals of his trip to the Middle East and to Saudi Arabia, thus improving his position on his home front.
It may be that Biden's party lifebelt will actually ascend from Washington, following the court's ruling on abortions, which might be the buoy giving him vital air to breathe.
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