Senior Israeli officials in recent days asked Amos Hochstein, the American diplomat in charge of mediating the maritime dispute between Israel and Lebanon, to accelerate the pace of negotiations before provocations on the part of Hezbollah derail the progress that has been made and possibly lead to an unwanted escalation.
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In Israel, officials want to finalize the negotiations before this September, when Israel's Karish gas rig is expected to begin production. The concern is that if a deal is not signed by then, Hezbollah will intensify its provocations, which could plausibly ignite a dangerous clash capable of spinning out of control.
Israel and Lebanon have made significant progress in the negotiations over their shared maritime border. Once the issue is resolved, Lebanon can begin developing its natural gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea, which it desperately needs due to the country's dire economic situation.
Defense officials say that because the negotiations are expected to be finalized soon, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is trying to win points by provoking Israel, both to bolster his image as the "defender of Lebanon" and to claim later on that Israel "capitulated" due to his threats.
Calculated risk
Israeli officials believe this is why Hezbollah has launched drones at the Karish gas rig in recent weeks. The fact that the intercepted drones weren't armed validates the assessment that the incidents were meant as a provocation.
On Monday, Israel said it intercepted a drone that crossed from Lebanese territory, and last week, Hezbollah's leader threatened Israel with military escalation if the maritime dispute is not resolved in Lebanon's favor.
The IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate isn't ruling out the possibility that Hezbollah could launch additional attacks on the gas rig in the near future, or provoke Israel in a different manner. According to Israeli officials, Nasrallah is assuming a certain level of risk by his conduct and failing to take into account that Israel could respond harshly to his actions.
Defense officials say both privately and publicly that Israel will respond with considerable force to Hezbollah's provocations. They are not discounting the possibility that such a response will trigger a harsh reaction from Hezbollah, thus entangling Israel in several days of hostilities in the north. This could help explain Prime Minister Yair Lapid's visit to IDF Northern Command on Tuesday.
"Israel is prepared to act against any threat," said Lapid. "We have no interest in escalation but Hezbollah's aggression is unacceptable and is liable to lead the entire region into an unnecessary escalation."
He was joined by Defense Minister Benny Gantz and top military officials as he toured the area.
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