After a raucous six-hour-plus debate, the Knesset passed in first reading the first two pieces of legislation related to the government's judicial reform.
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While the Opposition mourned, the Coalition celebrated its victory, achieving the first step in its plan. The question is then: What is next in store for Israel?
1. The reform will pass
One highly likely scenario is that the first bills will pass the final reading in the Knesset plenum. It might not happen immediately, but – according to statements by the coalition – occur by the end of the current session, which concludes around Passover when the Knesset will go into recess. Given the pace at which the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee is preparing the bills, the timeline is certainly possible, even if the Opposition tries to delay the vote.
The sides are not engaged in any talks at the moment, despite President Isaac Herzog's call for mediation. If nothing changes, the coalition will likely push forward with the legislation as planned and have it approved in the near future.
Afterward, Justice Minister Yair Levin plans to introduce the second part of the reform, which is likely to be approved during the winter session.
2. A constitutional crisis
Another possibility is that if and when the reform is approved by the Knesset, the judiciary will try to block it. The Coalition is clearly aware of this scenario, which is why it first introduced bills that give the Knesset the ability to override Supreme Court rulings with a majority of 61 voters, to determine the selection of judges, and prevent the court from weighing in on basic laws.
It is unclear how willing the judges would be to get involved in these laws as they are directly related to the Supreme Court and its status, but some are known to have interfered with the Knesset's legislative processes in the past, so this is a possibility.
3: The legislation will be put on hold
Another possibility is that the judicial reform will be paused for the sake of negotiations. Many Coalition members, although they possess the majority to approve the reform without outside help, would nevertheless like the Coalition and Opposition to mediate and agree on an outline to reduce tensions.
And although no faction of the Opposition is likely to support the reform following the talks, the procedure can at the very least focus on softening the divisive rhetoric. After the Coalition's victory on Tuesday, such talks are likely to occur, but unlikely to yield results.
4. The sides will reach a compromise
Based on this scenario, the negotiations will prompt the Coalition to forgo major parts of the reform under pressure from the president and the Opposition.
This process may encounter difficulties at the very beginning, because while the Right has clear representatives – Levin and head of the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Simcha Rothman, the situation on the Left is unclear – would it be led by Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, State Party leader Benny Gantz, Supreme Court Chief Justice Esther Hayut or former Supreme Court Chief Justice Aharon Barak, who has led the constitutional revolution since the 1990s?
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Assuming the Left can choose a leader to represent it, the talks will most likely focus on practical matters that will lead to some reductions in the changes to the judicial system. As of now, it doesn't seem that this is where the sides are headed, but given that there is a strong push for negotiations, this too can happen.
5. The Coalition will not survive
Given the divide over the reform, some Coalition members might be prompted to rethink their position and demand dialogue with the Opposition as a prerequisite, without which it would be impossible to move forward with the legislation.
In such a scenario, the Opposition will do its utmost to drag things out, causing the Coalition to lose momentum and public support for the reform, and ultimately, its ability to promote legislation.
If this happens, the Coalition will lose some of the support of the right-wing public, which has so far backed it in the legal and other fields.
