It was recently reported that five people were killed among them two Azerbaijani soldiers in an exchange of fire in the Karabakh region. The incident happened after Azerbaijani soldiers stopped a convoy that was suspected of weapons smuggling. The question remains, what caused the recent escalation of violence in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan? Does the Kremlin play a role in this latest round of violence? Do the mullahs also influence what happens on the ground in Karabakh?
Azerbaijani journalist Elnur Enveroglu stated recently that this was not the first time that Armenian separatists attacked Azerbaijan in Karabakh: "We have to blame the external powers and the Russian peacekeeping contingent for not observing their obligation, especially back to the first tripartite agreement with Russian mediation. This is why Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev mentioned Azerbaijan's establishment of a checkpoint on the Lachin road from Armenia to Karabakh."
According to him, this latest round of violence "means that Armenia does not want peace and stability in the region and it is always inclined to committing provocations and instability in Karabakh, especially impeding Azerbaijani side to incept the negotiation between Karabakh Armenians in Khankendi." He added that Armenia is illegally bringing mines and weapons into the Karabakh region, pondering why Armenia would do this. He claims that Armenia wants to do this in order to threaten Azerbaijan rather than finding "common grounds for peace talks."
However, even if the Armenian side were not so interested in making a peace agreement, Armenia is a landlocked country blockaded on most sides. If it were not for the support that they were getting from Iran and Russia, they could not sustain themselves without making peace both with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and thus would have gone along with that course of action. However, because there are international players who also do not want there to be an Azerbaijani-Armenian peace, they are thus able to evade signing a peace treaty.
Neil Watson, a British member of the Advisory Board at the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy, noted that what happened recently "is the last attempt of the Russians of trying to maintain instability. They are very worried that there will be a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The dialogue started between an Azerbaijani minister and the Armenians living in Karabakh. He listened to their concerns in order to placate them. A dialogue has started on the human level."
According to him, "The Russians fear that it will get out of hand. So, they permit the weapons to be transported along the road and this led to a confrontation. The Russians are the source of the weapons in Karabakh, so the illegal entity in Khakhendi will be maintained and they will thus maintain their control. Now, Azerbaijan seeks checkpoints to be installed at the end of the road. That is why it happened."
Renowned French historian Dr. Maxime Gauin, who also sits on the Advisory Board of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy, had a different take on the matter, "What we can say with a certain degree of probability is that the Armenian Army and the Armenian separatists do not want the peace treaty. They feel encouraged by the mullahs and the Kremlin. This process would mean the end of the separatist business in Khakhendi and the influence of the mullahs and the Kremlin will decline if this would be signed. The whole reason why Armenia aligned with Iran and Russia is because of their fear of Turkey. If they were sign a peace agreement, there would be no reason for this alliance."
According to him, "Armenia is the exit door for Iran to the world. The Iranians cannot export to the south via the United Arab Emirates and the Arab countries, so they do it via Armenia. The clashes are thus linked to the context that I described. But we should make a distinction between the military and separatists, who do not want peace, and Pashinyan and the government, who are trying. However, we will know for sure once we have access to internal Armenian documents, but this is the most likely scenario."
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and editor of the Economic Peace Center. She is also the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media."
