Spain's general election on Sunday could make the country the latest European Union member swing to the populist right, a shift that would represent a major upheaval after five years under a left-wing government. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the early election after his Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and its small far-left coalition partner, Unidas Podemos ("United We Can"), took a beating in local and regional elections.
The center-right Popular Party emerged from the May 28 elections with the most votes. Polls for the general election have consistently put the PP in first place – but likely needing support from the far-right Vox party to form a government. Such a coalition would return a far-right force to the Spanish government for the first time since the country transitioned to democracy following the 1975 death of Gen. Francisco Franco, the dictator who ruled Spain for nearly 40 years.
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The Popular Party and Vox have agreed to govern together in some 140 cities and towns since May, as well as to add two more regions to the one where they already co-governed. Sen. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP's leader, has not ruled out a partnership at the national level. Led by former PP member Santiago Abascal, 47, Vox opposes abortion rights, denies climate change and rejects the need for government to combat gender violence. Election polling indicates the party could finish third this weekend, a showing that would put Abascal in a kingmaker's role.
Nagore Calvo Mendizabal, a senior lecturer in Spanish and European Politics and Society at King's College London, said the likelihood of Vox entering government frames Sunday's parliamentary election "in terms of the future of democracy in Spain as being what is at stake."
Vox's manifesto is virtually a "copy-and-paste of the tenets of the Franco regime," Calvo said. It promises, for example, a return to a highly centralized government by scrapping the 17 regions that came into being after Franco's death. Beyond Spain, a PP-Vox government would mean another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies, Calvo said.
