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Home Analysis

This is what's coming

Even though some statements by those in the War Cabinet are vague, it's clear to everyone in the closed room that the day after the war, Hamas will not be in Gaza and may not be at all.

by  Ariel Kahana
Published on  10-17-2023 16:48
Last modified: 10-19-2023 12:46
'With 1 tank facing hundreds of terrorists, I understood how the Yom Kippur War fighters felt'AFP/Menahem Kahana

An Israeli army Merkava battle tank deploys with others along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on Oct. 13, 2023 | Photo: AFP/Menahem Kahana

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When World War II broke out, it was clear to the British leadership that the person who had led the country to the abyss had to go. Therefore, Neville Chamberlain was sent home and the one who had seen it coming – Winston Churchill – was installed in his place.

In Israel, the opposite has become the norm. In the Yom Kippur War, the Second Lebanon War, and now in Gaza, it's the public's convention that victory comes first and heads roll only afterward.

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At the present writing, at this early stage of the campaign, Israeli public opinion seems to be spot-on. Despite small hiccups, immense shock, and thick residues, the Israeli war cabinet understands the immensity of the task that Jewish history has thrust upon it.

A week after Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot joined the small team that is managing the war, they and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the other members are working in coordination, pursuing a single goal, and marching down the same path.

What's the goal? Banishing Hamas from the face of Gaza. Even though some statements by those in the War Cabinet are vague, it's clear to everyone in the closed room that the day after the war, Hamas will not be in Gaza and may not be at all: Not a "downsized Hamas" nor a "deterred Hamas" nor a "civilian Hamas." No Hamas. Someone else will be running Gaza. It might be the Palestinian Authority, as the Americans would like. It might be an international entity or some other body that will pop up. But not Hamas.

Video: PM vows to exact immense price from Hamas in Diplomatic-Security Cabinet meeting Credit: Twitter/@Israelipm

How will this objective be attained? The answer is a broad conquest of the Gaza Strip on the ground. There's a consensus about this, too. The invasion won't begin immediately. It's well understood in that room that the longer the aerial pounding continues – literally changing the topography of the Strip –the easier it will be to enter on the ground. The Jews have adopted the Arabs' saying "haste is from the devil" and that's a good thing.

The Israeli incursion will not undo the 2005 pullout from Gaza because the Jewish settlements that we ourselves uprooted will not be re-established, at least not by this government. The entrance on the ground will, however, largely reverse the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 1994, in what was called then "Gaza and Jericho First," aka the Oslo I agreement. Israel will eat away at lots of land in the Gaza Strip with the intent to retain it until further notice. The political echelon clearly realizes what every Israeli clearly realizes: The residents of the Gaza border area will not return to their communities unless they and the world are plainly aware that the threat is gone.

In other words, it will take several days or, perhaps, several weeks for the ground operation to begin. It will be immensely powerful, on and under the surface, but at the same time cautious in order to hold the number of Israeli casualties to a minimum. The incursion may take weeks if not months. When it's over, Hamas' military array will have been decimated and so will its civilian rule.

While it is proceeding, Israel will keep a watchful eye on the humanitarian situation in the Strip. There's no crisis there at the moment, nor is one even imminent. Only if a humanitarian problem really erupts will Israel allow supplies to enter from Egypt in order to head off a catastrophe. Until then, despite the American criticism, no gesture will be made apart from a limited supply of water. So, at least, has the political leadership undertaken.

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Tags: Gaza War

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