Donald Trump remains the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. But his odds have worsened after he became the first former American president to be convicted of a felony.
Trump moved from a -165 favorite over President Joe Biden to -130 at BetOnline.ag, an offshore sportsbook that is not regulated in the US. Biden's odds improved from +140 to +110.
"Without being a game changer, Trump's chance slightly decreases," BetOnline.ag political trader Paul Krishnamurty told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "Polls have consistently shown he loses some support if convicted. The appeal will distract from the campaign. His reaction, and that of his supporters, will alienate some independents, who ultimately hold the key to the election."
A negative number represents how much a person would need to bet to win $100. Using the BetOnline odds, a bettor would have to wager $130 to profit $100 on Trump being elected. A positive number represents how much a person would profit from a $100 bet. In this case, a bettor would need to wager $100 to win $110 on Biden being elected.
A New York jury found Trump guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels, who said the two had sex.
"This was a rigged, disgraceful trial," an angry Trump told reporters after leaving the courtroom. "The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people. They know what happened, and everyone knows what happened here."
The verdict caused only a slight ripple in the election odds across the pond, as Trump moved from a -125 favorite to -120 at United Kingdom-based Online Betting Guide (olbg.com). Biden remained the +137 second choice.
"The Trump verdict may have sent shock waves around the world, but in the markets, there has only been the tightest of drift in support for him to claim the presidency later this year," an OLBG spokesperson said in an email. "There is still confidence in the market that Trump is going to get the ticket and beat Joe Biden at the polls."
Trump was a -400 favorite at BetOnline to be found guilty of any crime before the election.
The judge has set Trump's sentencing for July 11, just days before Republicans are set to select him as their 2024 nominee at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Trump is expected to appeal the verdict.
The conviction – and even imprisonment – will not bar Trump from continuing his campaign to win back the White House.
Odds against prison
Based on the odds, it appears unlikely Trump will see prison time. Will he see prison time before 2025? No is a -4,000 favorite, and yes, it is a 10-1 underdog. Before 2026, no is a -500 favorite, and yes is a 3-1 underdog.
The guilty verdict caused former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's odds to improve from 80-1 to 33-1 to win the election. She lost the Republican primary to Trump.
Former first lady Michelle Obama, who has not entered the race, is the 25- 1 third choice, followed by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 30-1.
Trump's chances also took a hit on electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com.
From Wednesday night to Thursday night, Trump's implied odds on the website dipped from 53.6 percent, or -115, to 50.0 percent, or +100. Biden's implied odds improved from 38.1 percent, or +163, to 41.1 percent, or +143.
According to the site, studies find that political betting markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls.
Betting on politics isn't permitted at US sportsbooks.
Reprinted with permission from the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
