A ceasefire-hostage release deal with the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip could provide an opportunity to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in the north, diplomats told The New York Times Monday.
According to officials briefed on the matter who spoke to the NYT on condition of anonymity, both Israel and Hezbollah have indicated a willingness to enter negotiations for a formal truce if a Gaza ceasefire-hostage release deal is achieved. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror group with significant influence in Lebanon, has stated it would cease rocket attacks if Israel halts its operations in Gaza.
The proposed negotiations would focus on the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from southern Lebanon and increasing the presence of Lebanon's official military in the area. Additionally, talks would address the demarcation of the westernmost parts of the Israel-Lebanon border, which has never been formally delineated due to the absence of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
"Neither side really wants a bigger war because they understand the huge damage that it would cause their countries," Thomas R. Nides, a former United States ambassador to Israel, told The New York Times. "The problem is that wars are caused by miscalculations. And by trying to deter each other from escalating, they risk making a miscalculation that does the opposite of what they intended."
The current round of fighting, initiated by Hezbollah on Oct. 8, has already resulted in significant casualties and displacement. According to the United Nations and Lebanon's Health Ministry, more than 460 people in Lebanon have been killed, including over 100 civilians. On the Israeli side, 21 soldiers and eight civilians have lost their lives.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, analysts suggest that both parties are seeking ways to de-escalate without losing face. Mohanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told The New York Times, "Their focus is showcasing more what they can do rather than actually inflicting harm on the Israelis. Hezbollah wants to avoid an all-out war for a reason that is Lebanon's own fragility."
