Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s abrupt exit from the 2024 presidential race and his endorsement of Donald Trump has added a new twist to the election, but political analysts are uncertain about its impact on the Republican nominee's chances.
According to USA TODAY, Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist and environmental advocate, announced on Friday that he was "suspending" his independent campaign and putting his support behind Trump. However, experts question whether this move will significantly boost Trump's prospects.
🚨RFK Jr. voters move overwhelmingly to President Trump. pic.twitter.com/9K5Q2knLR2
— Eric Schmitt (@Eric_Schmitt) August 25, 2024
Kennedy's endorsement comes with potential risks for Trump, given the growing negative perceptions voters have of the former Democratic candidate. In his lengthy announcement, Kennedy made clear his opposition to Vice President Kamala Harris and criticized the Democratic Party.
Initially, Democrats had labeled Kennedy an "election spoiler" who would help Trump by taking votes from President Joe Biden. However, recent polls indicate that Kennedy's candidacy was actually hurting Trump more than the Democrats.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll in June found that 32% of Kennedy supporters chose Trump as their second choice, compared to 18% for Biden. More recently, a Cook Political Report survey of seven battleground states showed Trump as the second choice for 45% of Kennedy voters, with Harris at 26%.
Kennedy's campaign has been marked by controversy, including revelations about placing a dead bear cub in New York's Central Park and facing new sexual assault allegations. His support has been declining, with the Real Clear Politics average of polls showing him at 4.5% nationally, down from 11% in early May.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, "It has very little impact in the national polling. The question is, what will the impact be in the swing states? And from what we've seen, it's probably going to be marginal." The shift could be crucial in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where margins are often narrow. Paleologos suggests that both the Trump and Harris campaigns will need to fine-tune their outreach efforts to attract former Kennedy voters.
Jen O'Malley Dillon, Harris' campaign chair, downplayed the effect of Kennedy's exit during a panel talk in Chicago. "We are very confident the vice president's going to win, whether she's running against one candidate or multiple candidates," she stated.
The Trump campaign, however, sees the endorsement as potentially critical in swing states. Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio claimed in a memo that the number of votes likely to swing from Kennedy to Trump in certain states could exceed Biden's 2020 victory margins.
Democratic National Committee senior adviser Mary Beth Cahill responded to Kennedy's exit with "good riddance," stating, "The more voters learned about RFK Jr., the less they liked him. Donald Trump isn't earning an endorsement that's going to help build support; he's inheriting the baggage of a failed fringe candidate."
