Following the demise of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran was greatly weakened. The Assad regime was one of Iran's most important allies in the Arab world. Now, Assad is being replaced by Sunni Islamist rebels backed by Turkey. Although these rebels are no friends of Israel, they are also sworn enemies of Tehran and by them assuming power, they have already broken up the Shia Crescent, which spreads from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea.
After Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire following Israel eliminating 80% of the leading figures in Hezbollah, Iran is looking to regain its strength as a regional power. For Iran, maintaining a Shia Crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea is of pivotal importance, if the mullah's regime seeks to stay in power. All of their power and support rests upon spreading terror across the globe. Therefore, they will seek to make up for the loss of Assad by rebuilding Hezbollah's arsenal in Lebanon.
Thus, Iran is working in order to help Hezbollah regroup after suffering a major defeat. The elimination of Hezbollah terror leader Hassan Nasrallah together with the pager attacks which resulted in the maiming of thousands of Hezbollah terrorists was a major blow for Iran. That blow was almost as great as the loss of Assad. However, this has not stopped Iran from helping Hezbollah to regroup.
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Information Center reported that Ali Larijani, the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor, said Hezbollah had become a missile manufacturer itself, and that, contrary to Israel's claims, it continues to maintain extensive capabilities in the field of weapons. He noted that Hezbollah plays a central role in Lebanon and that removing the organization from the political equation in the country is out of the question. He also said that senior Iranian military officials are planning different ways to respond to the Israeli attack on Iran.
According to the report, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the claims that Iran would leave Hezbollah alone are part of Western media psychological warfare, and that Iran would not leave the "resistance" alone under these circumstances and would continue to support it by all possible means. The Meir Amit Intelligence and Information Center added that Iranian Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi reported that Iran had treated nearly 500 wounded Lebanese from the pager attack in September 2024 and had performed about 1,500 surgeries on injuries to eyes and hands.
Meanwhile, while Iran is regrouping in Lebanon, Iran is investing in building stronger ties with Armenia in order to counter the strengthening of rival Azerbaijan following the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation, which led to the weakening of Iran's position in the South Caucasus. According to a report posted on Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi's telegram channel, the Iranian Foreign Minister together with Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met and discussed ways in order to enhance cooperation between Iran and Armenia.
According to the Telegram post, Mirzoyan highlighted the importance of continuing cooperation between Armenia and Iran, particularly in light of regional developments and he invited the Iranian Foreign Minister to also come to Armenia. The two ministers agreed to hold regular consultations in order to better develop bilateral relations.
From an Israeli perspective, this is a major blow because one of the reasons why Israel agreed to a cease fire in Lebanon is because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to focus more on Israel's struggle against Iran proper and less upon fighting Iran's proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel still considers Iran's nuclear program to be an existential threat and possibly now might want to focus more on fighting against it, rather than cleaning up the remnants of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
If Iran regains strength through a strong friendship with Armenia in the wake of the South Caucasus country distancing itself from Moscow, this is not a positive development. It would be better for Israel if Armenia would form an alliance with the West and make peace with Azerbaijan, thus leaving Iran alone to be a pariah state. However, so far, this unfortunately has not happened.
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and is an Israel-based journalist. She is the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media.
