Embassy evacuations? Strategic bomber deployments? Aggressive diplomatic language? Media outlets routinely cite these developments as evidence of mounting security tensions and harbingers of imminent military action. Yet another theory, one that has gained considerable traction online, proposes a different barometer for approaching American military operations – pizza orders, specifically late-night deliveries to establishments surrounding the Pentagon, White House, and other security agencies.
Washington has long recognized the "pizza index" as a reliable concept, built on straightforward logic – periods of heightened security tension, particularly preceding military operations, require Defense Department personnel to work extended overnight shifts. What sustains these marathon sessions of waiting, strategizing, and monitoring Middle Eastern developments? Pizza, naturally. This index suggests that surging pizza orders at Pentagon-area restaurants during late-night hours signal that "significant developments" are unfolding.
Journalists first observed this pattern during the 1980s amid crises preceding American interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989), along with the 1986 departure of Philippine strongman Ferdinand Marcos from Manila. However, Pentagon-area pizzerias achieved international recognition during the Kuwait crisis that precipitated the First Gulf War.
August 1, 1990 – one day before Iraq's Kuwait invasion – witnessed record pizza deliveries to CIA headquarters (though located outside Washington DC, local pizzerias there similarly benefit from security tensions). Throughout the week preceding combat operations, Pentagon nighttime deliveries surged dramatically.
Frank Mix, who operated a Washington-area Domino's franchise, discussed the phenomenon with media outlets during the First Gulf War. "The White House typically ordered 50 pizzas daily. That number jumped to 125," Mix told the Chicago Tribune in February 1991. "The significant increase occurred during late evening hours. Previously, we made no deliveries after nine or ten p.m., but suddenly we needed additional staff for overnight shifts."
Mix reported that Pentagon nighttime deliveries exploded from 3 to 101 orders during the week before hostilities commenced, while wartime daily orders reached 300 pizzas, with deliveries simultaneously increasing to the White House and State Department.
This pattern reemerged during December 1998 throughout President Clinton's impeachment proceedings and the Kosovo conflict. Veteran journalist Wolf Blitzer, then serving as CNN's Pentagon correspondent, captured the phenomenon perfectly – "Bottom line for journalists – always monitor the pizzas."
Extreme Pizza, one of the closest pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon, is experiencing a huge surge in activity.
District Pizza Palace, a bit farther away, is also experiencing a surge in activity.
Both unusual for a Wednesday at around 7:05pm EST pic.twitter.com/kYQP1LQ33h
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 11, 2025
Today, users on social media share Google Maps screenshots displaying pizzeria congestion levels, while specialized accounts such as @PenPizzaReport on X monitor traffic at Pentagon-adjacent locations. During Iran's April 13, 2024, attack, users documented exceptional activity at the nearby Papa John's.
Does the "pizza index" indicate approaching conflict with Iran? Recent dramatic developments – including reports that Israel contemplates attacking Iran imminently without American backing, plus Wednesday's emergency evacuation of US embassies in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait – prompted global users to examine pizzeria activity. Current evidence suggests bomber crews remain grounded.
The @PenPizzaReport X account documented typical Pentagon-area pizzeria activity Wednesday night, noting some establishments recorded increased orders while others experienced reduced demand. Either reports of impending strikes were overstated, or the Defense Department has embraced healthier "overnight dining" following 18 months of sustained conflict. Washington, Middle Eastern capitals, and international observers continue monitoring developments.
