In a groundbreaking legal review, the European Union has determined that some trade and diplomatic privileges granted to Israel can be suspended without full consensus among all 27 member states. The review, conducted in preparation for an upcoming foreign ministers' meeting, found that a qualified majority of 17 countries representing at least 65% of the EU population could suffice to revoke benefits such as customs exemptions and simplified trade arrangements.
The revelation, obtained Thursday by Israel Hayom, comes amid growing diplomatic pressure on Israel over its military operations in Gaza. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has launched a diplomatic offensive to block potential punitive measures that several EU member states are pushing to adopt.
While a full suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement or specific sanctions over alleged human rights violations still requires unanimous consent, the legal opinion found that several key trade perks could be rolled back with only a qualified majority. These include Israel's participation in the EU's "Open Skies" agreement, certain scientific and technological partnerships, and visa facilitations, moves that could inflict unprecedented economic harm.
The urgency stems from a July 15 meeting of EU foreign ministers, where a report accusing Israel of violating human rights and breaching its agreements with the EU will be discussed. The report, which Israel contends is biased, was commissioned after Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot and 17 other countries - among them Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, and France - urged an investigation into Israel's actions in Gaza.
Former Estonian Prime Minister and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, has said the report aims to pressure Israel to allow more UN humanitarian aid into Gaza but has not ruled out the possibility of sanctions. EU officials noted that while Kallas is less hostile to Israel than her predecessor Josep Borrell, she faces mounting pressure from member states demanding a tougher stance.
As of now, unless changes occur due to the expanded humanitarian aid to Gaza, Kaja Kallas is expected to present a range of sanction options against Israel at the upcoming European Union meeting next Tuesday. The bad news for Israel is that the longstanding assumption that any decision against it requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states is no longer valid. Until now, significant EU decisions have required full consensus, and Hungary's support for Israel has prevented hostile resolutions from passing. However, some of the measures Kallas plans to propose would require only a qualified majority.
A recent review conducted by the European Union over the past month concluded that suspending the entire EU-Israel Association Agreement would still require full consensus among all member states. The same applies to specific sanctions for human rights violations, an arms embargo, and removing Israel from the Horizon research funding program and the Erasmus student exchange program.
However, the legal opinion has sparked serious concern: certain components of EU-Israel relations can be revoked with only a qualified majority. For instance, rescinding customs and tariff benefits currently enjoyed by Israel, an action that would cause unprecedented economic harm, would not require unanimous agreement. The same applies to the "Open Skies" aviation agreement, parts of the scientific and technological collaboration, and visa policy. In contrast, imposing an embargo on goods from Judea and Samaria would still require separate approval from each EU member state.
The Foreign Ministry's current diplomatic blitz appears to be yielding some results. Slovakia has reportedly pledged not to support sanctions, and Austria is also pulling back amid Germany's firm backing of Israel. On Thursday, Sa'ar met with the German and Austrian foreign ministers in Vienna, while Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel traveled to Italy to shore up support. Germany and Italy, along with Hungary and the Czech Republic, form a potential blocking bloc.
A last-minute reprieve came when the EU and Israel reached an agreement to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza, addressing concerns from countries like Spain and Ireland that had fueled the sanctions push.
"Israel will likely fend off this current attempt," an EU official said. "The council's upcoming recess buys Israel some time. But the precedents now set pose a serious risk down the line, making it easier for hostile countries to target Israel in the future."
