This marked the beginning of the avalanche. Nearly a year has passed since Hassan Nasrallah's right-hand man was eliminated in Dahiyeh, Beirut. The strike against Fu'ad Shukr was an almost surreal event at the time. The IDF was responding to the disaster of the rocket strike on Majdal Shams, where 12 children were murdered in the Druze community. However, this was the harbinger of a sequence of events that turned the northern front upside down.
It's almost possible to forget, but the thought of bombing Hezbollah's stronghold in those days raised grave concerns about precision missile launches into the heart of Tel Aviv. Israel periodically published catastrophic scenarios, each more terrifying than the last. Hezbollah indeed tried to respond to the elimination with hundreds of Katyushas and drones, but failed the results test. After several preventive attacks and IDF disruptions, Nasrallah began losing his balance. More importantly, the web of fear he had woven through years of psychological warfare and countless speeches gradually unraveled until it was finally removed.
Both Lebanese and Israelis were exposed step by step to an extraordinary intelligence effort that lasted approximately 20 years and penetrated the very heart of the Shiite terror movement. Nasrallah was horrified to discover day by day that his organization was exposed in the open. Every meeting of commanders subordinate to him, every bunker, every missile launcher, every communication device, were like clay in the potter's hands for the security establishment. About a month and a half after Shukr's elimination, Lebanon trembled. Thousands of pagers exploded on the bodies of Hezbollah terrorists, killing hundreds of them and leaving many disabled – a humiliation unprecedented in the history of the modern Middle East. Senior Hezbollah officials admitted that Nasrallah had collapsed mentally. "It was the end of the world for him," said Wafiq Safa, head of the Liaison Unit. Not much time passed before the symbol of the Iranian axis was eliminated itself.
Warning of "disaster"
A year later, Hezbollah faces a historic crisis. For example, a fund belonging to it recently announced to the families of killed terrorists that it would stop subsidizing tuition for their children. This involves tens of millions of dollars annually. The attack on branches of its financial arm – "Al-Qard Al-Hassan" – combined with a long series of American sanctions, dealt a death blow to its economic activity. Even in Dahiyeh, Beirut, the unshakeable stronghold, the terror movement struggles to pay contractors to complete renovation work on destroyed buildings.
The Lebanese newspaper Sawat Beirut described the desperate situation this week. "Hezbollah faces a severe and unprecedented economic crisis that could change its course and affect Lebanon," it reported. "In a desperate attempt to reduce expenses, Hezbollah now adopts a comprehensive austerity policy that affects all areas."
According to Lebanese sources, the financial crisis has already crossed all red lines. Salaries for terrorists are no longer guaranteed in full, compensation payments are unusually delayed, and families of the dead do not receive benefits they previously enjoyed, such as medical treatments, education fees, and social assistance. Soon, the period designated for paying rent for Shiite families forced to evacuate their homes due to the war will end. From the start, rent subsidies were defined for one year only. Hezbollah's leadership did not estimate that the rehabilitation process would take so long.
Furthermore, financial advisors within the organization warned leadership of "disaster" if immediate funding isn't secured. According to these advisors, it's already particularly difficult to receive funds from Iran, which has significantly reduced Hezbollah's budget. This situation worsens due to "logistical and security complications" that delay money transfers and exacerbate the financial crisis. This results from two dramatic changes in the past year stemming from Hezbollah's defeat. First, the collapse of Assad's regime in Syria and the rise of Islamist rule that is hostile to Hezbollah. A government fighting weapons and drug smuggling, one of the organization's funding sources. Second, the strengthening of Lebanese leaders in Beirut. These ordered tightened oversight of Iranian money smuggling attempts through the airport, as a result of American pressure.
Returning the weapons
Sawat Beirut revealed that Hezbollah's money smuggling methods are failing to cover the growing deficit in the budget. It was also reported that the financial crisis directly affects the logistical and military rehabilitation process and may weaken the terror organization in the long term. Beyond that, within the inner circle, demands are growing for Naim Qassem, Nasrallah's charisma-lacking successor, to find immediate solutions to the crises.
Adding to this headache is political and diplomatic pressure from the US and the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. Although Naim Qassem firmly refused to surrender weapons and Beirut still stammers regarding direct confrontation with him, the Americans and Gulf states present the Lebanese leadership with a determined equation – concentrating weapons in state hands in exchange for aid or worsening the economic crisis. These days, Qassem set himself one goal – to survive, at any cost. Still, many of his enemies from within identify the weakness. Israel is already exploiting it and eliminating its terrorists almost daily despite the ceasefire.
