IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir is expected to deliver a stark warning to the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet on Thursday, arguing against a full-scale conquest of the Gaza Strip. Zamir reportedly told a smaller forum on Wednesday, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, Defence Minister Israel Katz, and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi.
In his presentation to the cabinet, Zamir is expected to stress the risks involved in launching a comprehensive military operation in parts of Gaza where IDF troops have yet to operate, particularly in the central camps and the Al-Mawasi area. Beyond the threat to the 20 living hostages believed to still be held by the terrorist organization, the chief of staff will warn that IDF forces are fatigued, and that the conquest of the remaining territory would take time and come at a heavy cost in soldiers' lives.
According to officials familiar with the details, Hamas has had 22 months to prepare for the IDF's entry into these areas. "Hamas has a significant advantage there. The terrorists will emerge from tunnels, injure and kill soldiers. The entire Strip can be conquered, but it comes at a price," said one source.
Zamir's plan, as he sees it, strikes a balance between the need to maintain pressure on Hamas, protect soldiers' and hostages' lives, and avoid exhausting the IDF. His proposal would involve encircling the remaining Hamas strongholds, seizing high ground, and controlling key routes. For now, the plan includes allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza but stopping short of broader civilian concessions. Those close to Zamir say his approach is not driven by defeatism, but rather as an operational approach that avoids massive mobilization of reservists or significant deployment of regular forces. At the same time, in the chief of staff's view, it will exert the necessary pressure on Hamas, even if that takes time.
Opposing this view is Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and reportedly Netanyahu as well, who argue that the situation in Gaza has reached an impasse. They believe that due to what they term the "starvation campaign", an international push for increased humanitarian aid, Hamas is being bolstered diplomatically. Under this view, the odds of securing a hostage deal that also meets Israel's security needs are now slim.
This approach argues that the partial combat doctrine has failed to deliver results in nearly two years. They point to the IDF's Operation Gideon's Chariots, developed under Zamir, which has yet to achieve its stated goals. The Hostages remain in Gaza, and Hamas remains functional. Some would say the problem lies not in the plan itself, but in the political hesitance to fully implement it. For those supporting a complete reoccupation, the time for half measures has passed. If a deal is unattainable, Hamas must be defeated militarily.
The Prime Minister's Office stated on Wednesday what it described as the obvious: "The IDF is prepared to carry out any decision made by the cabinet." Defense Minister Israel Katz released a statement backing Zamir's right, and duty, to express his professional opinion, while also asserting that "once decisions are made by the political leadership, the IDF will carry them out decisively and professionally, as it has done in every theater, until the war's objectives are achieved."
Puppet on a string
Asked whether the IDF will implement a cabinet decision to launch a major offensive, senior officers said that the military's role is to present the government with the full implications of such a move. Zamir is aware of his position as a military professional who must follow orders, but he does not see himself as a puppet on a string. He views it as his obligation to articulate his strategic assessment. In this case, he believes reoccupying Gaza would amount to a strategic trap.
History also suggests that Israel's political echelon is reluctant to embark on a major war effort without the backing of its security chiefs. Just over a decade ago, Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak supported a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities but ultimately shelved the plan due to opposition from top defense officials.
That said, the cabinet has full authority to act against the military's recommendations, and the IDF is obligated to comply. Still, if Netanyahu moves forward with an expanded war effort in Gaza despite Zamir's objections, it will be the prime minister who will have to explain that decision to the Israeli public, and bear its consequences.
