On Monday, Norway's residents will head to the polls to elect the country's next leader for the next four years. According to the latest polls, the center-left coalition led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and the Labor Party is slightly ahead of the center-right parties, including the Progress Party (FrP) led by Sylvi Listhaug and the Conservative Party led by Erna Solberg, the former prime minister.
Poll results published in recent weeks predict that the Labor Party will remain the largest party in parliament after the elections, with polls giving it 27% and a comfortable position to form a coalition.
"The main conflicts between the right and left in Norway concern economic elements, including taxation issues, dealing with the cost of living, and discussion about Norway's welfare policy," explains Norwegian journalist Alexander Zlatanos from the Minerva news site. "The right wants to lower taxes, encourage investment and growth, and reduce the country's generous welfare policy – while the left talks about raising taxes for the wealthy."
Zlatanos adds that the immigration issue was previously a burning topic, but "Labor painted a picture of tightening immigration policy, and the issue became less significant in the current elections." In the economic context, Zlatanos notes that the figure of Jens Stoltenberg, a former finance minister and economist who served as NATO Secretary-General for a decade, helps Labor gain voter trust.
The threshold in the country stands at 4%, and polls predict that several small left-wing parties, some with extreme communist positions, are expected to enter parliament. Despite the many challenges facing Norway's approximately 5.5 million residents, absurdly, a central part of those left parties' campaign dealt with a completely different subject: the war in Gaza.
Center of the world
"Norway took a pro-Palestinian approach even before October 7, but since then has become one of the most hostile countries to Israel. The deterioration of relations began when the government refused to allow the king to express condolences for the massacre, claiming the king 'won't be involved in political conflicts.' Since then, Norway has supported the lawsuit against Israel in The Hague, refused to recognize Hamas as a terror organization, and imposed political and economic sanctions. Today, Israel has no ambassador in Oslo, and the visas of Norwegian diplomats working with the Palestinian Authority were revoked.
"The election campaign of left-wing parties focused on the war in Gaza disproportionately. Sometimes it seemed like this is the center of the world and this is the most urgent problem that most affects Norwegian citizens," notes Norwegian writer and journalist Ivar Fjeld. "The parties on the left thought that if they focus on Gaza and compete over who condemns Israel more, they'll get more votes. Accusing Israel of genocide and crimes against humanity was perceived as effective on the left – it was simply madness."
According to Fjeld, a situation has been created where right-wing parties don't want to show support for Israel: "The right can't support Israel because then it will be accused of supporting 'child killers.' The conservatives, who previously supported Israel, were swept into the negative campaign and now claim that Israel crossed the line in its response. There's no longer a difference between center-left and center-right in the approach to Israel. Only the Progress Party is considered friendly, but it also doesn't emphasize this out of fear of electoral damage."
Norwegian hostility toward Israel is expected to intensify in the near term. The extreme left parties condition their support for the government on intensifying measures against Israel. The SV party, which receives only 6% in polls, demands that the Norwegian Wealth Fund – managing assets worth about $2 trillion – withdraw its investments from any Israeli company or company working with Israel. In a coalition with a small majority, such a small party could have decisive weight, as could parties like the Greens and the Communist Party.
The fund has already begun withdrawing investments from Israeli companies and American companies operating in Judea and Samaria, which drew internal criticism in Norway about "politicization of investments" and damage to relations with the United States, after American companies Caterpillar (manufacturer of heavy engineering equipment and D9 bulldozers) were also hurt by the move. To the economic power of the enormous investment fund, one must add the leverage Norway holds over Europe in the form of its gas exports, which became vital following the desire to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
The anti-Israel trend directly harms Jews and Israelis in the country. "Jews in Norway, who traditionally lean left, are disappointed by politicians' inaction against antisemitism, and sometimes even by the conduct of politicians who spread antisemitism themselves," shares On Alplag, an Israeli living in the country for three decades. "Many fear for their safety and their families' safety. Some are considering leaving, and some have already left."
Alplag adds: "The situation isn't rosy. The incitement and lies in local media amplify the sense of danger." He adds that after publishing an article in a leading newspaper, he received "threats on my life and my family from extremists on both sides of the map – both from the right and left – demanding I leave the country," but also messages of support from friends of Israel. "This adds to the ambivalent feeling," he concludes.
Despite the anti-Israel campaign, the messages of support Alplag received represent a pro-Israel side in Norway. Unlike Ireland, where there is almost complete consensus against Israel, in Norway, there are groups of Christians who love Israel, located mainly in the western and southern regions. Beyond that, it seems the country's future generation leans more to the right, including parties with a positive approach to Israel.
"In Norway, there's a tradition of elections held in schools before the general elections. I was invited to several election debates after which they vote, and was warned in advance that a large part of the political discussion in schools focuses entirely on Gaza," says Alexander Zlatanos. "Indeed, a large part of the students representing the left didn't stop talking about Gaza, but when it came time to vote, the right won clearly. The Progress Party receives about 30-40% in schools in cities, and sometimes 60-70% in villages and rural settlements, despite their support for Israel."
According to him, when looking at the overall picture, about half of young people support parties known to support or previously supported Israel. "Therefore, in my opinion, despite all the campaigns that touched on Gaza, that's not what will win the elections for the left. The scandals surrounding Erna Solberg's husband, the desire for stability, the hope for correct economic policy – these are the things that might bring the left victory. Norwegians want Palestinians to receive aid, but don't really think they can influence that arena too much, and things that really touch their daily lives are more important to them."
Writer and journalist Ivar Fjeld also believes the left is marching toward victory in these elections, but not because of excessive popularity or pointing the accusing finger at Israel. "In the general political arena, I think what was will be, the prime minister will again be Støre. We saw in elections held among high school students and university students that the right is more popular than the left. But the right is divided and can't agree on who will be prime minister."
