The most perilous shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics are often preceded not by declarations of war, but by a slow, deliberate poisoning of the diplomatic well. The calculated deterioration of Egyptian-Israeli relations is one such shift. What was once the region's most stable if cold peace is now fracturing under the weight of Cairo's incendiary rhetoric and strategic provocations, pushing both nations toward an unthinkable confrontation.
President Sisi's address to the Arab-Islamic summit on September 15th where he declared Israel an "enemy" who is "aborting existing peace deals", and accused Israel of "reckless conduct that destabilizes regional security" is not merely criticism; it is a public legitimization of Cairo's confrontational pivot. By framing Israel as a regional aggressor that threatens the "security of all nations," Sisi is diplomatically constructing a casus belli, effectively inviting a broader coalition to support or at least condone Egypt's confrontational stance.
The rupture has now officially moved from whispered tensions to an overt diplomatic confrontation at the highest level. Cairo's refusal to accept the credentials of Israel's newly appointed ambassador, Ori Rothman confirmed by former Israeli ambassador Amira Oron and reported by Saudi media marked the initial fundamental breach of diplomatic protocol. This act, leaving Egypt without an ambassador in Tel Aviv following Khaled Azmi's departure, is a deliberate signal of hostility, effectively downgrading relations without an official announcement.
The core of the crisis is a profound clash over sovereignty and security. According to an exclusive report from Middle East Eye, a high-ranking Egyptian security source alleges that Israel has planned assassinations of Hamas leaders on Egyptian soil, with Cairo claiming to have already thwarted one attempt. This accusation, whether substantiated or not, provides the pretext for a dramatic reorganization of Egypt's security contacts with Israel, moving them to a lower level and fundamentally undermining the cornerstone of their relationship for decades.
This diplomatic offensive is amplified by a coordinated campaign of vitriolic rhetoric from figures closely linked to the Sisi regime. Major General Samir Faraj, a retired Major General in the Egyptian Army with a career spanning key infantry and intelligence roles, closely linked to President Sisi, repeatedly claimed that Egypt has "surprises" for Israel in the Sinai peninsula a strong hint at military buildup. Likewise, the head of Egypt's State Information Service (SIS- the Egyptian President's PR body) warned that the distance from Egyptian soil to Tel Aviv "doesn't exceed 100 KM". These statements, evoking the bellicosity preceding the 1967 war, are not fringe opinions; they are sanctioned provocations, spread widely through media channels with ties to Egyptian intelligence and the Presidency.
Most critically, this rhetoric has been translated into an official warning. As reported by CNN, Cairo sent a message to the United States threatening "serious consequences" should Israel attack Egyptian territory, directly mirroring the threats made by its television generals. This formalizes the brinkmanship, moving it from social media speculation to the realm of state-to-state ultimatums.
The driving force behind this dangerous pivot is Cairo's desperate bid to reclaim the "Gaza card." For years, the Hamas-controlled strip guaranteed Egypt international relevance, drawing U.S. presidents to the phone with Sisi to request mediation. Qatar's successful brokering of a ceasefire stripped Cairo of this leverage. The Israeli strike on Doha presented a golden opportunity: by offering to host and protect Palestinian faction leaders, Egypt positions itself to wrest back control of this vital strategic asset, even at the risk of war.
Crucially, Egypt's invitation to Hamas leaders despite Israel's explicit ultimatum targeting hosts of Hamas figures is a deliberate assertion of sovereignty and regional influence. By providing sanctuary to figures like Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Cairo signals that it alone dictates terms, directly challenging Israel's policy of extraterritorial targeted assassinations. This move is less about ideological alignment with Hamas whom Cairo still views with suspicion and more about reclaiming its historical role as the indispensable Arab mediator, a status recently usurped by Qatar. The message is unequivocal: Egypt will not be intimidated by Israeli threats nor sidelined in regional diplomacy, even if it means escalating tensions to a breaking point.
President Sisi faces an impossible calculus. His regime, one of the world's most authoritarian, is built on nationalist fervor and military control. By orchestrating this confrontation, he diverts attention from profound domestic failures. Yet, this gambit risks triggering a conflict that could shatter Egypt's fragile economy and destabilize the entire region.
The coming months will likely witness calibrated escalation rhetorical threats, security posturing, and diplomatic cold shoulders.
Yet as Cairo continues this collision course, it plays with fire. The peace treaty, once a cornerstone of regional stability, now looks like a brittle relic. Ultimately, this manufactured crisis may achieve what decades of open enmity could not: a return to a state of war, perhaps a cold war, between the Middle East's most populous nation and its most powerful military.
Mohamed Saad Khiralla is a political analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and Islamist movements, an opinion writer and member of PEN Sweden.
Khaled Hassan is an Egyptian British national security and foreign policy expert and council member of Israeli President Isaac Herzog's Voice of the People Initiative.
