Iran has begun rebuilding missile production facilities struck by Israel during the 12-day war in June, satellite imagery analyzed by The Associated Press shows, but a key component remains missing, the large planetary mixers needed to produce solid rocket propellant.
Rehabilitating its missile program is vital for the Islamic Republic, which sees another round of war with Israel as a real possibility. Missiles are one of Iran's few remaining military deterrents after the war degraded its air defense systems, a priority Tehran has long insisted will not be on the negotiating table with the West.
A race for critical mixers
Missile experts told AP that acquiring the mixers is a priority for Tehran, especially as it prepares for possible United Nations sanctions later this month. The measures under discussion would penalize any further development of Iran's missile program, among other steps.
Known as planetary mixers, the machines contain blades that rotate around a central point, like planets in orbit, and provide superior mixing compared with other equipment. Iran could obtain them from China, where U.S. officials and other experts say Tehran has previously purchased missile propellant components and other parts.
"If they succeed in re-acquiring some key things such as planetary mixers, then the infrastructure is still there and ready to restart operations," said Sam Lier, a research fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who studies Iranian missile sites.
Planet Labs PBC satellite images taken this month and reviewed by AP show reconstruction activity at both Parchin and Shahroud. At Parchin, mixing buildings appear to be under repair, Lier said, and similar rehabilitation is under way at Shahroud, including mixing halls and other structures.
The speed of the rebuilding underlines how important the missile program is to Tehran. The nuclear sites struck so far have not shown the same level of activity.
During the war, Iran fired 574 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America in Washington, which has close ties to the Israeli military. In two exchanges of fire before the war, Iran launched another 330 missiles, the institute said.
The IDF estimated Iran's total arsenal at about 2,500 missiles, meaning more than one-third of its arsenal was fired.
Before the war, Iran was on track to produce more than 200 solid-fuel missiles a month, Karl Perkin, a summer fellow at the James Martin Center, said. That capacity is what Israeli strikes on missile-building facilities aimed to disrupt.
"The focus of Israel suggests they believed mixing was the bottleneck in Iran's missile production," Perkin said. "If Iran manages to overcome its mixing limitations, it will have all the casting capability it needs to begin mass production again."
Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh recently claimed Tehran already has new missiles with more advanced warheads. "The 12-day war with Israel changed some of our priorities," he said on August 22. "We are now concentrating on producing military equipment with higher accuracy and greater operational capabilities."
Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said Beijing can supply guidance systems and microprocessors for Iran's ballistic missiles.
"If Iran uses its ties with China to bolster its violating military capabilities, the 12-day war could be only a setback for the Iranian regime, not a decisive defeat," he wrote.
