Wall Street is holding its breath for what may be the most consequential earnings day of the year. As the market closes on Thursday, a quartet of tech titans – representing the core pillars of the modern digital economy – will step into the earnings confessional.
This isn't just a random assortment of companies. It's a complete snapshot of our economic reality.
- Amazon (AMZN) represents the digital backbone of the economy (cloud computing) and the state of the global consumer.
- Apple (AAPL) is the ultimate barometer for high-end consumer discretionary spending and the future of personal technology.
- Reddit (RDDT), the newly public face of social media, will test the durability of the digital ad market and the nascent, high-stakes business of AI data licensing.
- Coinbase (COIN) serves as the bellwether for the entire crypto ecosystem, a proxy for retail speculation, and a test case for building a stable business on a volatile asset class.
With a macroeconomic backdrop of stubborn inflation, high interest rates, and a massive capital expenditure (capex) boom driven by Artificial Intelligence, the results and – more importantly – the forward guidance from these four companies will set the market's tone for the critical holiday quarter and all of 2026.
Here is what investors will be watching for each.
Amazon (AMZN): All Eyes on the "Two A's" – AWS and AI
For Amazon, the story has evolved far beyond online shopping. The company's profitability and valuation are now inextricably linked to two key drivers: Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Advertising.
Headline Expectations:
- Consensus EPS: $1.57
- Consensus Revenue: $177.7 billion
The primary focus will be the AWS growth rate. After a period of deceleration, investors are desperate to see stabilization and a clear sign that the massive AI spending is translating into revenue. The consensus estimate for AWS revenue is approximately $32.5 billion, which would represent a robust 18.4% year-over-year (Y/Y) jump.
After a dip in AWS operating margins last quarter – attributed to heavy investment in AI infrastructure – analysts will be parsing the segment's profitability. Is the capex, running at a staggering pace of over $31 billion per quarter, a drag or an investment? The narrative will be shaped by commentary on new AI products like Amazon Bedrock AgentCore and the monetization of AI workloads.
The second key metric is advertising. This high-margin business, which grew 23% last quarter, has become a critical profit engine. Investors expect to see continued momentum.
Finally, Q4 guidance is everything. Any commentary on the health of the consumer heading into the holiday season will move the stock. As a side note, expect at least one analyst question about the financial impact of the brief-but-significant AWS outage on October 21st.
Apple (AAPL): The iPhone 17 Cycle and the China Question
Apple reports its fiscal fourth quarter, and the narrative is refreshingly simple: it's all about the iPhone 17. This report will provide the first concrete sales data for the new flagship device, and early indications suggest a strong start.
Headline Expectations (Fiscal Q4 2025):
- Consensus EPS: $1.73
- Consensus Revenue: $101.2 billion
The single most important number will be iPhone revenue, with consensus pegged at $49.75 billion (a 7.6% Y/Y increase). Early channel checks have shown total iPhone 17 sales tracking 14% higher than the iPhone 16's launch, fueling "super-cycle" whispers.
The second major focal point is China. After persistent concerns over stiff competition from local rivals and geopolitical tensions, recent data suggests a powerful rebound. The consensus for Greater China revenue is $16.23 billion, which would mark 8% Y/Y growth. A beat here would alleviate the market's biggest fear.
Beyond hardware, the Services division continues its relentless march. Expected to post revenue of $26.96 billion (+12.3% Y/Y), this high-margin recurring revenue stream (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music) is what provides Apple's valuation with its fortress-like stability. Strong growth in the Mac segment, driven by new M4 and M5 chips, is also expected to provide a healthy boost.
Reddit (RDDT): Proving the Monetization Model
For Reddit, the 2024 IPO darling, this quarter is about proving its business model is both scalable and profitable. The stock has been buoyed by two powerful narratives: a maturing ad business and the X-factor of AI data licensing.
Headline Expectations:
- Consensus EPS: $0.52
- Consensus Revenue: $549.7 million
This would be Reddit's fifth consecutive profitable quarter, a major milestone. The revenue story is twofold. First, its core advertising business is accelerating, thanks to new automation tools and dynamic product ads. The key metric to watch here will be Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which grew an explosive 47% last quarter. Investors need to see that this monetization is sustainable.
Second, and perhaps more exciting for the long-term bull case, is the AI data licensing story. Reddit's vast, human-centric corpus of conversations is incredibly valuable for training large language models. Any new details on the revenue contribution from these deals will be a massive catalyst.
Finally, user growth and engagement remain critical. Features like "Reddit Answers," which grew from 1 million to 6 million weekly users in Q2, show the platform is successfully tapping into search-led engagement, further strengthening its moat.
Coinbase (COIN): The Search for Stability in the Surge
Coinbase's report is a tale of two businesses. After a dismal Q2 defined by low crypto volatility, Q3 was a perfect storm for the company. While Bitcoin was relatively flat, a scorching "altcoin season" (with Ethereum surging 66%) drove a frenzy of retail trading.
Headline Expectations:
- Consensus EPS: $1.06
- Consensus Revenue: $1.7 billion
The market expects a massive beat driven by Transaction Revenue. This volatile (but high-margin) segment is forecast to hit $939 million on the back of a 62% Y/Y surge in trading volume (est. $299 billion).
But the "beat" isn't the real story. Long-term investors will ignore the noise of transaction fees and focus squarely on Subscription and Services Revenue. This is the stable, recurring revenue from staking, custody, and USDC interest, and it's the key to Coinbase's long-term survival. The consensus is $712 million. Hitting or exceeding this number, which is within the company's own guidance, is more important than any transaction-fueled headline beat.
Recent partnerships with giants like Citi and rating upgrades from JPM signal that institutional adoption is real. Today's report will test if Coinbase can finally prove it's a durable financial technology company, not just a levered bet on crypto prices.
