Against the backdrop of renewed reports about US efforts to advance the Abraham Accords, senior Saudi researcher Dr. Aziz Alghashian is lowering expectations regarding normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh.
"I think right now it's almost impossible," said Alghashian, a researcher of Saudi foreign policy, in an interview with Israel Hayom. "First of all, Netanyahu has made relations with Israel and his government too toxic. Saudi public opinion has a very negative perception regarding normalization, and in effect Saudi Arabia is distancing itself from normalization. Second, the things Saudi Arabia wants from the US are achievable in stages. It can achieve a defense alliance because that doesn't require Congressional approval."
Beyond that, Alghashian noted that since Israel's strike in Qatar, its perception in Saudi Arabia has become particularly negative. "I think many people are trying to raise speculation out of wishful thinking or even as part of a certain practice. It has become the norm to raise speculation about normalization. It seems as if nothing else is happening in the region besides this. There is a situation of ethnic cleansing in Sudan, but people mainly talk about Saudi Arabia and Israel."
Factors are in motion
According to him, there are too many factors related to normalization that "are in motion" – like the elections in Israel, the conduct of the administration in the US, and even potential elections in the Palestinian Authority – so it's doubtful whether Saudi Arabia will even consider such a move.
When asked by Israel Hayom why Saudi Arabia views the strike against Hamas leaders in Qatar as something negative, he replied: "It's not necessarily related to Hamas. There isn't much love for Hamas in Saudi Arabia, it must be said. What the Saudis were furious about is that the talks (regarding a ceasefire agreement and hostage deal) were held in Qatar because that's what the Americans wanted for this mediation. Netanyahu and his people appreciated the fact that Qatar was mediating and serving as a channel of communication. From the Saudi point of view, the reason for the fury is the fact that the Qataris hosted the mediation efforts and Netanyahu attacked Doha.
"Another reason is that right now it seems Israel reaches anywhere it wants in the Middle East. It shows that, and it doesn't hide it. That's another reason why Saudi Arabia is not interested in normalizing its relations with Israel right now. Any discussion about normalization now will appear as if it's being conducted from a position of weakness on Saudi Arabia's part, or that it's being pushed into normalization forcibly. That's something that would be considered political suicide, to be honest. There's also a question regarding relations with the US. There is a lack of trust because the Americans are not willing to restrain Netanyahu."
Different government
Given that there will be a different government in Israel, will this development advance normalization, or is it more complicated?
"In my opinion, if such a government could bring something to the Palestinian issue, then it could happen, but it's more complicated than that. Theoretically, it's not enough, as I think a significant move is needed to be convincing to both parties. First of all, for the Saudi public opinion. Right now, Saudi public opinion must be taken into account. For a long time, they say 'Palestinian state.'
"Therefore, anything less than a state will need to be significant enough. Another matter is that the Palestinian Authority also needs to be convinced by this move. That the Palestinian Authority will say 'yes, this is good enough.' Lapid, Eisenkot, and even Bennett can get there, but these are the conditions. And this doesn't include the American component. The Saudi public knows much more about the dynamics of the occupation and the Palestinian-Israeli issue. That's the reason something significant is needed, and public opinion needs to be taken into account more."
You mentioned the influence of Saudi public opinion on decision-making. Is this a new phenomenon, or has the royal house considered this over the years?
"It's not new," he said. "Saudi Arabia always took public opinion into account. This is one of the reasons why, historically, the Saudis were gradual or slow in their process regarding Israel and regarding their foreign relations in general.
"That's the reason why people think Saudi Arabia opened quickly under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, when the reality is that it's part of a gradual process. In foreign policy decisions, they always took local public opinion into account. That's the reason why fatwas (religious rulings) are very important, and they will continue to be important. You can see this even in the case of 'Desert Storm' (the first Gulf War, in which American forces were deployed to the kingdom). Believe it or not, Saudi Arabia made relations with Israel legitimate in the early 1990s in religious discourse."
