Janet Jara, Chile's Communist Party candidate and current labor minister, leads presidential election polls at 30% as voters head to the polls Sunday, but her ceiling of support virtually guarantees a December runoff defeat against whichever center-right candidate finishes second – potentially reversing President Gabriel Boric's aggressive anti-Israel policies that have damaged the South American nation's international standing and economy.
"From Chile, small as a swallow / to Mexico, tall as a silk eagle / a red thread of blood and hope unites us," wrote renowned Chilean poet Pablo Neruda, long before his vision of communist revolution materialized during Marxist President Salvador Allende's tenure, and before General Augusto Pinochet, with American backing, seized power through a violent military coup on September 11, 1973.
Since then, these two heavy shadows – communism and military dictatorship – seem to hover over Chile.
Jara supporters in the streets of Santiago will accompany millions of voters in Sunday's presidential elections, where the Communist Party representative attempts to return to La Moneda palace. Facing her stand several intriguing political figures (all of German descent, incidentally), who will try to force the decision to a second voting round and remove the red threat from the country, this time without tanks in the streets and a body in the president's office.
President Gabriel Boric of Chile has degraded the country's standing. At the center of the elections stands opposition to the policies of Gabriel Boric, formerly the "wonder boy" of Chilean politics, who was elected president at 35 and has since managed to become entangled in sordid political scandals, degrade Chile's economy (always considered the most stable in Latin America), damage residents' sense of personal security, harm its standing in the international arena, and position himself as one of the most extreme markers of hostility toward Israel while giving tailwind to rising antisemitism in the country. Boric cannot run in these elections (the president's term is limited to four consecutive years only), but his approval ratings have hit rock bottom following his progressive policies, and every ballot cast seems to be a vote against him as well.
"Janet Jara, labor and welfare minister in Boric's government, Communist Party leader and candidate of the united left-wing bloc for president, leads all polls heading into the elections with 30% of voter support," a senior Chilean journalist and political analyst told Israel Hayom. "She maintains stability, her polling graph looks like a completely straight line, but that's actually her problem – 30% of the votes is essentially her ceiling, because most Chileans will vote against her at the decisive moment. She's perceived as continuing Boric's path, and even more extreme than him on many issues, and her attempts to distance herself from him during the campaign were probably too little and too late."
Jara supporters in the Chilean city of Valparaíso show her 30% ceiling. Chile's electoral system requires absolute victory in elections. Therefore, if none of the candidates achieves more than 50% of the votes, as all polls indeed predict, an additional election round will take place on December 14 between the two candidates who achieved the largest number of votes.
"Facing Jara, three main candidates compete from the center and right, not including various characters who run for elections just to lose and earn some money and publicity along the way," the journalist explained. "Sunday's elections are, therefore, a kind of 'primary elections' for them, which will determine who advances to the second round and will most likely become Chile's next president or female president – this is the dominant scenario, and it seems only something unexpected and completely insane occurring during the coming month could change the situation."
Evelyn Matthei is pragmatic with an open personality and sense of humor. The general's daughter – Evelyn Matthei (71), representative of the Independent Democratic Union party (UDI) and former minister in Sebastián Piñera's government, already advanced to the second round in the 2013 elections and lost to Michelle Bachelet, was long considered to have the best chances of reaching the decisive duel against Jara. Matthei was perceived as a pragmatic candidate with an open personality and sense of humor, who called for unity and spoke about practical ways to improve the country's situation, based on her experience and past achievements.
The problem is that her past also includes support for the Pinochet regime in the late 1980s, largely due to her family background (her father, of German descent, was a general in the Chilean army and air force commander, and served as health minister of the military junta), which automatically disqualifies her among many voters. Matthei defines herself as belonging to the center-right, but also holds many liberal positions (same-sex marriage, abortion rights) and formulated an orderly plan for Chile's rehabilitation, including a focus on public security, investment of billions of dollars in strengthening the police, and emphasis on four percent economic growth in GDP and creating one million new jobs.
She has achievements and experience, but a problematic past. "Matthei opened the campaign very strong, newspapers already called her 'the next president,' but lost momentum toward the end, probably because the public grew somewhat tired of her bureaucratic approach to national challenges," the Chilean journalist said. "Now it appears José Antonio Kast has taken her place, sharing many positions with her, especially in the economic sphere and everything related to fighting crime, but enjoying one significant advantage – Jara attacks him constantly."
José Antonio Kast makes his third attempt to win the presidency. Kast pivots toward the center – Four years ago, Kast (59), a representative of the Republican Party, lost in the second round to Boric (who received the most votes in the first round). Kast, who defines himself as socially and economically conservative, started the current race (his third attempt to be elected president) from a disadvantage position. Shortly before the second round in the 2021 elections, it was revealed that his father was a member of the Nazi party in Germany in his youth, a fact Kast tried to deny and hide. Additionally, his reactionary positions and support for elements of Pinochet's regime marked him as an extreme figure operating outside the consensus circles of the political center.
However, as happened in many other places, Jara's negative smear campaign against the right, which focused on the "reactionary" Kast (who is also a devout Catholic and father of nine children and opposes abortions and same-sex marriages), brought him back into the race and positions him in second place behind her, with approximately 22% (compared to the 14-15% he received in earlier polls), leaping over Matthei.
Kast benefited from the smear campaign. "Kast is now perceived as someone who can collect votes from all center and right voters in the second round," said Yonatan Novogrodskey, a tech entrepreneur from Santiago who previously served as CEO of the Jewish community in Chile. "Most Chileans fear communism, which Jara represents. They saw what it did to the country 50 years ago, and they see how it has recently devastated Venezuela. The average voter is very pragmatic and usually seeks the center, and Kast presents a vision aimed exactly there – he proposes to rehabilitate relations with the US, damaged because of Boric's extreme rhetoric, thus lifting the economy, fighting the dangerous narco mafia that keeps growing stronger, and toughening Chile's immigration policy, which made it an attractive destination for many questionable elements from Venezuela, Colombia and Haiti, a fact that troubles the average citizen."
Johannes Kaiser, Chile's presidential candidate, wants to be Chile's Milei. The online betting platform Polymarket gives Kast a 71% chance of winning the elections after the second round (Jara settles for 15%). A candidate who registered an impressive rise is Johannes Kaiser (48), born to a Chilean-German family (his grandfather was a social-democratic activist who fled Nazi Germany and integrated into Chilean politics). He spent many years in Austria, where he studied at several universities and worked in the tourism field and as a sports journalist.
During those years, he also began operating a popular YouTube channel ("El Nacional-Libertario"), where he spread his doctrine, combining neo-conservative and libertarian elements. Kaiser spoke against illegal immigration, against radical feminism, climate activism, and other "global agendas," as he defined them, attracting more than 150,000 followers online. In 2016, he returned to Chile and joined Kast's Republican Party, but in June 2024 withdrew and established the National-Libertarian Party as a new platform, operating outside the Chilean political establishment.
Kaiser draws inspiration from the success of Donald Trump in the US and Javier Milei in Argentina, and his plan is the most radical among all right-wing candidates – reducing public spending by 4.5-5% of GDP, decreasing the number of government ministries from 25 to 9, partial or full privatization of the state copper company Codelco, and withdrawal from international agreements on climate change and human rights. On security and immigration issues, he supports deporting illegal immigrants and strict border control, and even promised to close the border with Bolivia.
Kaiser's populist positions catapulted him in polls from 6% in July to 14-15% in October, with some polls showing him surpassing Matthei and positioning himself in third place. His agenda attracts voters disillusioned with the political system that keeps recycling the same candidates. Support for Kaiser intensifies as elections approach, but his biggest enemy appears to be time, which might run out before his political moves ripen into a real victory.
Like Kast and Matthei, Kaiser also flirted openly with identification and support for "part" of Pinochet's policies, and even declared he would support a '73-style military coup if communism took over Chile again.
"Jara's dream is for Kaiser to beat Matthei and Kast in the first round," the senior Chilean analyst explained. "She believes his extreme populist line will deter center voters and knows he's the only right-wing candidate she has any chance, even slim, of defeating. Therefore, she devoted much criticism to him in the debate among candidates last week. She understands that the more she attacks him, the stronger he'll become, as happened with Kast."
Janet Jara tries to distance herself from Boric. Unlike the right-wing candidates, Jara (51) comes from a much humbler background. She was born to a poor family (during her election campaign, she repeatedly told how her childhood home had no running water) and began her political path at 14 as a Communist Party member. She studied law, led student strikes in the 1990s, was elected president of the student union at university, and paved her way in the political system, ultimately being appointed Labor and Social Security Minister in Boric's administration, where she promoted pension reforms and minimum wage increases. These achievements helped her lead the left-wing parties bloc (Unidad por Chile), which Boric established.
However, in recent months, it became clear that this connection with the incumbent president, who recently received less than 40% public support, worked against her, and therefore her campaign strategy underwent a significant change as elections approached. Jara did not directly criticize Boric, but made sure to distance herself from several scandals that stuck to him, especially the silencing and attempted cover-up of rape allegations against Interior Ministry Undersecretary Manuel Monsalve, a government member and close associate of the president. "Jara tried to change direction and adapt her messages to center voters, but did it too late," the political analyst explained.
On one crucial issue, Jara did not distance herself from Boric – the unbridled attacks against Israel, before and especially after the October 7 massacre. In this area, she's actually even more extreme than one of the most extreme presidents on the continent. Boric, as recalled, refused to accept the credentials of Israel's previous ambassador to Chile, Gil Artzyeli, back in September 2022, because of "the children dying in Gaza." The current president, Peleg Levy, who entered the position in August 2025, has not yet submitted his credentials either.
Even earlier, in 2019, Jewish community members distributed honey jars to Congress members in Santiago, and in response, Boric tweeted on his Twitter account, "Everything is very nice, but instead of distributing honey, stop killing Palestinians and return their land to them."
Yonathan Nowogrodski says the fear is that Jara will lead to the complete severance of relations between the countries. "The past two years have been very difficult for the Jewish community, numbering about 15,000 people," Nowogrodski said. "The government publicly supported anti-Israel demonstrations, Boric announced the return of the country's military attachés from Israel, supported legal proceedings against Israel in the International Court of Justice in The Hague, returned the Chilean ambassador from Israel and essentially reduced to complete halt almost all diplomatic relations between the countries – and the fear is Jara will lead to complete severance of relations between the countries, which will further endanger the security of Jews in Chile, who were already forced to close ranks and choose tactical silence facing the extreme rhetoric directed at us and in light of violence and vandalism acts in synagogues and community institutions."
Chilean presidential election candidates before a televised debate. "However, the issue of the war in Gaza is definitely not at the center of the election campaign," the political analyst added. "The three candidates competing against Jara expressed their support for Israel. All declared they want to fix what Boric damaged and return Chile to the right track from a diplomatic standpoint.
"Boric used Israel as part of his attempt to break our republic's basic principles. In the past, presidents from left and right expressed their views, of course, but made sure to preserve the republic's institutions – the military, courts and foreign relations. Boric, on the other hand, got swept up with his extreme politics and dragged the country into confrontation with the US and into the arms of BRICS countries – mainly Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Iran – trying to present an alternative to Western countries' geopolitical power."
"Foreign investors were deterred by Boric," he added. "Therefore they're waiting for the administration to change so they can return and inject money into Chile, which desperately needs it. Therefore, voters will need to choose between the 'values' of Jara and Boric and Chile's rehabilitation."
Jara talks about a Palestinian state with a Jewish minority. And what about the influence of Chile's large Palestinian community (about 500,000 in a country with a total population of approximately 20 million – the largest Palestinian community outside Arab countries) on the elections?
"The community doesn't vote as one bloc," the political analyst said. "There's a difference between the veteran generation, which is traditional and conservative in its social and economic views, and the younger generation, many of whom led the protest against Israel since October 7 and swept many people in Chile with them. However, many of them know that if Jara wins it might be 'good for Palestine,' but bad for business."
"The former leader of the Palestinian community in Chile publicly supported Hamas, before and after October 7," Novogrodskey added. "Additionally, if Boric spoke about 'two states for two peoples,' Jara talks only about a Palestinian state, where a 'Jewish minority' could exist. This is an unbearable reality for us and many in the community are very worried about what else might happen if there's no one to lower the flames. We hope that in about a month Chile's future will already be much more positive."
