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Home News Middle East Iran & The Gulf

Khamenei plotting Moscow escape if regime falls

With a "divine mission" and paranoia, the Iranian leader prepares to abandon Tehran for Russia if his grip on power falters, echoing Assad's survival tactics, Sunday Times reports.

by  Erez Linn
Published on  01-05-2026 06:58
Last modified: 01-05-2026 07:21
Khamenei plotting Moscow escape if regime fallsEPA/IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER OFFICE

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praying inside the tomb of Iran's late founder (background: the protests in Iran in 2026) | Photo: EPA/IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER OFFICE

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Intelligence files obtained by The Times reveal that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has devised a fallback strategy to flee the country should his security apparatus fail to contain the growing dissent.

If the army and police forces ordered to suppress the unrest begin deserting or defecting, the 86-year-old intends to escape Tehran with a retinue of up to 20 family members and aides, the British outlet reported.

"The 'plan B' is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba," an intelligence source confirmed to The Times.

Beni Sabti, a veteran of Israeli intelligence who fled the Iranian regime years after the revolution, told the newspaper that Khamenei would retreat to Moscow because "there is no other place for him" to find sanctuary.

Sabti added that the Supreme Leader "admires Putin, while the Iranian culture is more similar to the Russian culture" in his remarks to The Times.

The evacuation blueprint mirrors the actions of his ally, deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who flew to Moscow to join his family just before opposition forces seized Damascus in December 2024, the report noted.

"They have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape," the source told The Times, adding that the regime is busy "gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage" out of Iran.

Khamenei controls a massive financial empire, including the Setad organization, a conglomerate of semi-state foundations known for financial opacity. Reuters estimated in 2013 that these holdings, comprising companies and properties controlled by the leader, were worth $95 billion.

The Times noted that many top aides, such as Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani – who famously warned President Trump to avoid interfering in Tehran – have family members already living in Dubai, Canada, and the US.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Background: Iranians visit an exhibition showcasing missile and drone achievements in Tehran on November) / ATTA KENARE / AFP; AP / Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader

Economic hardship has ignited nationwide protests over the last week, spreading to cities across Iran, including the holy city of Qom.

Demonstrators allege that riot police, the Basij militia, the army, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are using live fire, water cannons, and tear gas to crush the rallies, according to The Times.

Khamenei holds absolute command over these forces, serving as the ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic above the media, courts, and military. He relies heavily on the IRGC to enforce his rule.

The escape protocol will be initiated if the Supreme Leader believes his forces are no longer obeying orders. A Western intelligence psychological profile reviewed by The Times notes that while Khamenei controls key appointments and safety to prevent desertion, he remains wary.

The assessment described Khamenei as "weaker, both mentally and physically" since the 12-day war with Israel last year. He has been virtually invisible during the recent protests. Throughout the conflict, the report claims he hid in a bunker, avoiding the fate of other top IRGC officials and feeding his "obsession with survival".

Labeling him a "paranoid" leader, the profile suggests this trait drove his escape planning. "On one hand, he is very ideologically motivated, but on the other he is pragmatic in what he sees: he sees tactical compromise for long-term greater cause. He is a long-term thinker," the assessment read, according to The Times.

A billboard depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is displayed in the centre of Tehran's Valiasr Square on July 13, 2025 (AFP)

Born in Mashhad in 1939 to an Azeri-Turkish clerical family, Khamenei was interested in Western and Persian music, poetry, and literature as a youth, reading classics by authors like Steinbeck and Tolstoy.

He joined the opposition under the rule of the last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He was arrested multiple times and tortured by the Savak secret police, and in 1981 survived an assassination attempt that cost him the use of one hand.

The intelligence assessment cited by The Times indicates this attempt solidified his sense of "divine mission" to lead Iran against Israel and the West. After the revolution, he rose from deputy defense minister to president, eventually succeeding Ruhollah Khomeini as supreme leader despite lacking the requisite religious credentials.

He views himself as the head of Shi'ite Muslims globally, justifying investments in the "axis of resistance" – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and militias in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

The destruction of these fronts during the war with Israel has led Iranians to question funding external forces while they face record inflation. The Times reported that a chant on the streets rang out: "No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, I'd give my life for Iran only."

Tags: Ayatollah Ali KhameneiIranIRGCMoscowVladimir Putin

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