However, presidential advisers are urging caution, noting Iran represents a substantially more difficult operational environment. The uncertainty surrounding available military and non-military approaches – and their potential to achieve Trump's stated goal to "rescue" demonstrators – remains high, with significant risk of counterproductive outcomes, according to the Financial Times.
A former US official with expertise in Iran and the broader region explained the challenge, Financial Times reported. "Kinetic action is messy and unpredictable, and we're not good at non-kinetic intervention," the official stated. "In any complex system, you cannot do just one thing. Iran is a complex system."
Activist organizations have calculated that more than 500 people have been killed – including dozens from security forces – since demonstrations swept across Iran beginning in late December, according to the Financial Times. Thousands of additional individuals are thought to be in detention, these groups reported.
The US president, who declared a 25% tariff on Monday on nations conducting business with Iran, has indicated he is evaluating "very strong options" to come to the aid of protesters "if Iran violently kills peaceful protesters," Financial Times reported. The White House confirmed Monday that air strikes are included among the possibilities under consideration.
Military analysts and former government officials indicated potential targets would encompass Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards facilities, command and control operations, plus weapons and supply depots utilized by the government and its proxy forces, according to Financial Times.
Operations could expand to include strikes against senior Iranian officials, these sources noted, Financial Times reported. During Trump's initial presidency, the US eliminated commander Qassem Soleimani, and the president has previously indicated he could also strike Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Yet whether any such action would accomplish what Washington or the Iranian protest movement seeks remains uncertain – and could produce opposite results.
Analysts warned that military operations might strengthen the Iranian government's narrative, according to Financial Times. The regime has characterized demonstrators as "rioters" and "terrorists," accusing the US and Israel of fomenting the disorder. Notwithstanding Iran's profound political divisions, many Iranians united behind their government when Israel waged its 12-day war against the country in June – a conflict the US briefly entered.
A former senior US defense official cautioned about a fresh military intervention, Financial Times reported. "You run the risk of doing what you don't want to do," the official stated. "You run the risk of unifying the country."
American military strategists additionally confront enormous obstacles in pinpointing targets that would promote defections and additional deterioration in the government's capacity to suppress demonstrators, according to Financial Times.
Executing military strikes "to protect protesters from the regime's crackdown is not really an achievable military objective," stated Dana Stroul, who held the position of deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Joe Biden administration, Financial Times reported.
Tehran's response to the protest waves and Trump's warnings has involved escalating violence and an internet shutdown rather than surrender.
The former US official who concentrated on Iran and the Middle East characterized the regime's experience. "This is not their first rodeo," the official noted. Khamenei and his inner circle have maintained the belief that yielding to pressure "invites more aggression."
Trump has stated previously that the US "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capabilities and eliminated what had been a powerful regional threat following American strikes during the June war, according to Financial Times.
Yet during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit last month, Trump started warning about the possibility of a new campaign should Iran be discovered rebuilding its nuclear program, Financial Times reported. Though Netanyahu has advocated for this approach, Trump faces constraints from his and his MAGA base's opposition to extended military commitments.
The former official, who specialized in Iran and the region, assessed the administration's approach, the Financial Times reported. "They're going for quick wins here. They're not in the long haul for anything," the official stated.
Yet the successful mission to capture Venezuela's strongman Nicolás Maduro this month has triggered speculation that Trump's alternatives might include a comparable operation to eliminate the Iranian regime, according to Financial Times.
Though some Republicans including Senator Lindsey Graham have promoted this possibility, other Trump advisers warn that executing such an operation in Iran would prove vastly more complicated, Financial Times reported.
The US has diminished its military footprint in the Gulf and Mediterranean over the past year, redirecting some vessels to participate in Trump's counter-drug naval campaign in the Caribbean and Pacific, according to Financial Times.
The former senior defense official outlined the operational difference, Financial Times reported. "The huge difference between Venezuela and Iran is access," the official explained. "Ranges are great. Margins are very small."
Tehran has additionally threatened retaliation against any American assets in the region should US strikes occur, and Trump has promised to respond "at levels they've never been hit before," heightening the danger of rapid escalation, according to Financial Times.
A senior Trump administration official stated Monday that "the president is aware of the impacts of all options," yet emphasized that the president continues to regard Iran as the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, Financial Times reported.
Trump does not invariably execute his threats. Matthew Levitt, a former US counterterrorism official at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, observed the pattern, Financial Times reported. "He has threatened to send Hamas back to the Stone Age a bunch of times. We haven't seen that," Levitt noted.
However, Trump has carried through on other threats sufficiently often to generate powerful uncertainty, Levitt and other analysts stated, according to Financial Times. The former defense official characterized Trump's impact, Financial Times reported. "Trump is the wild card here," the official stated. "They fear him."
Monday, following Trump's statement that Iran's leadership had made contact to negotiate, the administration indicated it was once again leaning toward diplomacy. According to the Financial Times, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, "Diplomacy is always the first option for the president."
The communications Iran was transmitting "privately" were "quite different" from the regime's public statements, Leavitt explained, "and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages," Financial Times reported. Yet Leavitt added that all other alternatives remained available. She stated the president was "unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary. And nobody knows that better than Iran."
