The Iranian exposing the regime's weaknesses: 'Israel, it's time to help'

"Before the internet went down, people inside Iran managed to get one message out. They said clearly, 'We've done our part. We took to the streets in massive numbers with great force, aiming to topple the ayatollah regime. We risked our lives, and many of us were killed, wounded, and arrested. Now what we need is just one final thing – help from outside.'"

In the past two weeks, Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad, one of the prominent figures among Iranian exiles active in the US, has oscillated between hope and anxiety. On one hand, he's moved to see his people rising up against the murderous regime that has oppressed them for decades, flooding the streets of Tehran and many other cities with angry demonstrations, and beginning to genuinely threaten the regime's stability. On the other hand, in those very streets, what he defines as a mass massacre has been carried out in recent days.

"The regime sent the Revolutionary Guards to the streets, whose forces are using firearms and live ammunition to kill protesters indiscriminately," he said in a cracking voice. "We're receiving reports of bodies everywhere. There were cases where regime forces went street by street and simply shot protesters. A truck that followed them loaded the bodies, which were taken to Revolutionary Guard bases. Now the Guards are demanding enormous amounts of money from families of the dead, in exchange for transferring the bodies of their loved ones. They claim this is the price of the bullet that was 'wasted' on those who were shot."

The violent response from the Iranian regime, which could indicate it has its back against the wall, is showing its signs. According to Ghasseminejad, who, despite the internet blackout, still maintains contacts with figures inside Iran, the intensity of the street protests has already begun to wane.

"What the Iranian people urgently need is external help," he repeated, hoping this message would reach decision-makers in Jerusalem through the Israeli media. "This help was promised to the Iranian people in the past by several countries, including our good friend Israel. Your prime minister himself, Benjamin Netanyahu, looked into the camera and told Iranians, 'If you rise up against the regime, we will stand by your side.' But today, many Iranians are wondering why that promised help isn't coming."

Ghasseminejad himself, an academic who has studied the Middle East for years, wonders why the promised Israeli assistance is slow to arrive. "I don't understand why Israel is sitting on the sidelines," he said, nearly tearing his hair out. "After all, you have an interest in the current regime falling and being replaced by an alternative regime, which would necessarily be more friendly. This is an opportunity that won't return. Israel can help the Iranian people overthrow the regime. This is the moment."

No longer a distant dream

This isn't the first time Ghasseminejad and I have spoken. About a year ago, I interviewed him for an article that dealt with the possibility of the Iranian regime collapsing, an idea that seemed then – even before Operation Rising Lion (Israel's June 2025 strike on Iran's nuclear program) and the current protests – like a distant dream.

"Many people say there's no chance the Iranian regime will fall. In my opinion, that's a mistake," he said then, in November 2024. "There's great disappointment with the regime in Iran, it has no internal legitimacy, and the economic situation is fragile. If we formulate a plan, if we manage to organize several groups together, we can seize the opportunity and overthrow the regime."

When I called Ghasseminejad this week, who has lived in New York in recent years, I thought I'd find him in the euphoria of someone whose great dream is coming true. Instead, his voice carried a frantic urgency. He was mainly worried. "I'm worried because the death toll is growing at an insane rate," he explained. "I'm proud of my friends in Iran but also worried about them."

If you were there now, would you go out to protest?

"When I lived in Iran, I participated in protests of this kind. I would certainly go out to the streets, even at the cost of getting hurt."

There's no doubt Ghasseminejad would have taken an active part in the protests had he still lived in Iran. He comes from an educated family in Tehran, went to study engineering in Paris, returned to his country and completed a master's degree at Tehran University. Alongside his studies, he began participating in protests against the regime, until one day it cost him dearly.

"I was at a demonstration and was driving home," he recounted. "Two Revolutionary Guard men suddenly entered my car and sat beside me. For several minutes, I continued driving in silence, with them sitting in the car, until at some point they threw me in the back seat and drove the car directly to a detention facility where other protest participants were being held." He remained in isolation for about a month, then was sentenced to two years in prison on probation. The moment he was released from detention, he seized the opportunity and fled Iran to Paris. "I left my family behind," he said. "Since there's no internet I haven't spoken with them. When so many protesters are being killed, there's a reasonable chance some of them are family members. I don't know their situation right now."

In 2012, he settled in New York and has since achieved impressive success there. He completed a doctorate in economics at the City University of New York, after researching the effectiveness of the sanctions regime on Iran, and joined as a senior advisor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a research institute based in Washington, where several Israeli senior officials are members, including former National Security Council heads Yaakov Nagel and Eyal Hulata. Articles by Ghasseminejad have been published in the most prestigious platforms in the US. In all of them, he sought to give voice to Iranians who oppose the Islamic regime in their country. "The most brutal terror regime since Nazi Germany," as he himself defined it this week.

After arriving in the US, Ghasseminejad connected with another Iranian figure living in the country, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has lived in exile since his father, Iran's last Shah, was overthrown in the 1979 revolution. Ghasseminejad became one of Pahlavi's close advisors and even visited Israel with him in April 2023. "We enjoyed it very much," he recalled. "Israel reminded me of Iran. A beautiful country with good people."

Ghasseminejad said he's preparing these days to fill a central role in replacing the regime in Iran. We'll get to that.

"At least 12,000 were killed"

While this isn't the first time protest has erupted in Iran, the wave of demonstrations that swept the country in late December certainly represents a peak. "What we're seeing now we haven't yet seen in the history of the Islamic Republic," Ghasseminejad said. "This is the largest number of protesters that have taken to Iran's streets since the 1979 revolution. Demonstrations have been held so far in more than 150 cities, from all of Iran's provinces.

"The country isn't functioning, the internet is down, phone systems are disconnected from access abroad, and even the internal phone system is disconnected starting from evening hours. At night, Iranians can't communicate with each other." But what troubles Ghasseminejad most of all is the killing of protesters by the regime. "Reports coming from Iran indicate that at least 12,000 citizens were killed in the protests," he said.

These figures, he said, are based partly on information coming from inside Iran itself, albeit indirectly. "After the demonstrations began, Iranian groups and individuals managed to smuggle Starlink satellite dishes into Iran". "I'm in contact with some of the groups operating organized cells from within Iran and receive information through them. By the way, in recent days, we have learned that a large portion of these satellite dishes have stopped working. This shows you how much the regime is acting against the protests."

The demonstrations began on December 28, after several merchants at one of Tehran's shopping centers declared a strike to protest the severe erosion of the Iranian currency's value, which has lost about 40% of its value since Operation Rising Lion. Within two days, the protests had already spread throughout Iran, and what began as an economic protest turned into violent rage demonstrations against the regime, in which calls were heard like "Death to the dictator."

"The protests now are part of a decade of repeated protests, which each time erupt into waves of demonstrations," Ghasseminejad said. "Each such outbreak has a catalyst, something that ignites the protest. But Iranians know that no matter what problem they have – complete lack of civil rights, economic distress, social oppression – the reason is always the regime. As long as this regime remains in place, the problems will continue."

Is there anything the regime can do to appease the protesters?

"We've passed that point. Imagine you're an Iranian citizen and you saw that within a few days, this regime killed 12,000 people. There's no way to forgive that, and the regime knows it. That's why they've intensified measures against the protesters. From the protesters' perspective, they have no choice but to continue, because the moment pressure on the regime stops, it will go on a killing spree without restraint."

Not talk – actions

Ghasseminejad identifies a clear connection between the intensity of the protests and Operation Rising Lion, carried out just over half a year ago. "Iranians saw during the war that Israel has the ability to strike in Iran, and help them if they need help," he said. "But the moment the regime felt it was facing collapse, it began massacring citizens, without any real response coming from outside. The regime essentially exposed Israel's bluff, which promised to help the Iranian people."

He's referring to Netanyahu's statement that shortly after the "12 Days War" in June 2025 addressed the Iranian people directly. "Don't let a small group of fanatical theocrats crush your hopes and dreams. You deserve better," he said. He ended the address with the words "The Iranian people should know – Israel stands with you."

After the protests broke out, President Donald Trump also joined these statements, when, already on January 2, just days after the outbreak, he wrote on social media that "if Iran continues to violently kill peaceful protesters, as is their custom, the US will come to their aid." Since then, the US has refrained from striking Iran, which hasn't caused the American president to change his rhetoric.

The conversation with Ghasseminejad took place on Tuesday, before Trump's statement that "help is on the way," a statement that brought sensitivity to its peak toward another violent round between Iran and the US and Israel. But Ghasseminejad isn't excited by more statements. He wants to see actions, and more precisely – bombs and missiles. "We haven't yet seen significant steps on the ground in Iran that can prevent security forces from massacring protesters," he said. "If that happens, the regime will fall. Israel and the US have the ability to strike inside Iran, they proved it in the 12 Day War. We have reports that many security forces have stopped following orders. The death toll shows you the regime feels it's facing collapse, and doesn't have enough manpower to control the streets, except through shooting sprees."

A former senior Israeli official who until recently dealt with what's happening in Iran and spoke with Israel Hayom, claimed Israel built in the past a secret contingency plan that included about 30 "soft" operations – like cyber attacks, aid to minorities, enabling more open communication, and so on – that would be implemented the moment protests against the Iranian regime intensified, and would give them tailwind. So far, Ghasseminejad doesn't detect such operations. "But anyway, cyber operations and influence operations will no longer help at this stage. We've passed that point," he said. "What we need right now are kinetic operations against the oppression centers. The regime is on the verge of collapse, and the promised help isn't coming. The Iranians are fighting the regime with bare hands."

"This is the final battle"

One of the figures to whom the world's eyes turn, as someone who could fill the vacuum that will remain in Iran after the regime's overthrow, is Crown Prince Pahlavi. This week, it was reported that, amid the protests in Iran, Pahlavi met with United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Ghasseminejad refuses to confirm or deny the meeting's existence, and certainly isn't willing to elaborate about its content. Nevertheless, it's clear that Pahlavi is working behind the scenes, and also in front of them, trying to harness the world for the benefit of the Iranian protest. "The Crown Prince, Mr. Pahlavi, has spoken decisively about how this is the time for friends of the Iranian people – whether Israel, the US, or Europe – to take decisive steps against the regime," Ghasseminejad said.

Pahlavi's role is sharpening in light of the fact that so far no figure inside or outside Iran has succeeded in forming around itself a coalition strong enough to constitute a counterweight to the ayatollah regime. Iranian society, which is divided into dozens of classes, sectors and minorities, has struggled to find one leader who would represent the regime's opponents. Not everyone in Iran misses the Shah's days, who also led a unitary regime in the country. But in recent days, it appears Crown Prince Pahlavi is positioning himself well to assume the leadership role, as a symbol of unity.

"Protesters are shouting in the street, 'This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return,' 'Long live the Shah' and 'Iran is ready for your command, Crown Prince,'" Ghasseminejad said.

He said he participated in a large conference held last August in Munich, Germany, where about 500 representatives of different and diverse Iranian opposition groups gathered. At the conference's end, participants signed a declaration recognizing Crown Prince Pahlavi as the common representative of all regime opponents. It was an exceptional moment of unity within the Iranian opposition. "Pahlavi is the leader of this revolution. He united people inside and outside Iran," Ghasseminejad said.

According to him, Pahlavi has already drafted a 200-page document outlining his plan for replacing the regime in Tehran. "In the first stage, a referendum will be held, where people will vote on whether they support a constitutional monarchy," Ghasseminejad said, who was involved in preparing the plan. "Afterward, elections will be held for a constitutional assembly, which will draft a new constitution for Iran. After the constitution is written, another referendum will be held on its text. If the constitution is accepted, elections for parliament will be held. In any case, from the moment the regime falls, Iranians will have the ability to influence the type of new regime that arises, through free elections."