Nearly three weeks after protests erupted in Tehran's bazaars following the collapse of the national currency, Iran's regime appears to have succeeded, at least for now, in stopping the current wave of unrest through lethal repression, cutting the country off from the world and systematically vilifying demonstrators.
For the time being, the ayatollahs' regime has managed to avoid a military confrontation with the US. While the American president thanked Iran's leadership on Friday for allegedly refraining from executing protesters, Khamenei himself attacked Trump in a speech to an audience that included regime personnel wounded during the demonstrations.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed a gathering that included regime members injured in the unrest. "There was a real riot that harmed people and damaged the country," Khamenei said. "By God's grace, by the people and by experienced officials, this rebellion was extinguished." He claimed that "this rebellion was American. It is clear that Americans planned and acted. America's goal is to swallow Iran."
While President Trump spent the weekend portraying what he described as understandings reached with the regime as an achievement for himself and for the protesters, Khamenei continued his personal attacks. "In the past, when there were such disturbances, American journalists or second-tier politicians were involved," he said. "This time, the US president himself intervened. He spoke, expressed opinions, threatened, encouraged the rioters and sent them a message from America: 'Move forward, don't be afraid, we will support you, we will provide military support.' The US president himself entered the riots. He is part of them." Khamenei added: "We see the US president as a criminal because of the casualties, because of the damage, and because of the accusations he leveled against the Iranian people."
Tehran's prosecutor general, Ali Salehi, also addressed Trump's claims. "Trump always speaks nonsense and without basis, and he is also wrong," Salehi said during the event at which Khamenei spoke, in remarks broadcast on state television and translated by Iran International. "Our response is decisive, deterrent and swift. A large number of our cases have already led to indictments and have been transferred to court."
On Friday, during Tehran's weekly Friday prayers, senior cleric Ahmad Khatami called for the execution of detainees, whom he described as "Netanyahu's servants and Trump's soldiers."
Trump continued to explain his reversal during the week, after last week promising protesters that "help is on the way" and urging them to "take over their institutions." On Friday, before flying to Mar-a-Lago, he told reporters: "Iran canceled the execution by hanging of more than 800 people. I very much respect the fact that they canceled." Asked whether Arab states or Israel had persuaded him to cancel a strike, he replied: "Nobody persuaded me. I persuaded myself. Canceling the executions had a very big impact." On Truth Social, he wrote simply: "Thank you!"
On the ground, reports are growing that the major waves of protest were stopped by regime bullets and the blood of demonstrators. According to a European diplomat who spoke to the opposition channel Iran International, at least 1.5 million people took to the streets in Tehran alone on January 8, with around 5 million participating nationwide that day and the following day. The channel itself acknowledged that communications disruptions make it difficult to form a reliable assessment.
The Institute for the Study of War reported that it did not document any significant protests over the weekend and said the demonstrations had been suppressed "for now," while warning that the heightened presence of security forces in the streets, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia, cannot be sustained over time "in a way that could later allow the protests to resume."
Over the weekend, images and videos circulated showing a military presence in Mashhad, Tehran and other cities, as regime outlets made every effort to project "business as usual" and reported calm in the streets.
NetBlocks, which monitors internet access worldwide, reported a roughly 1% increase in national connectivity, a negligible level compared to normal times. Media outlets also reported that SMS messaging services had resumed for the first time. The opposition site IranWire said the regime plans to continue its digital blackout policy until late March, around the Nowruz holiday.
The blackout has also made it difficult to establish reliable figures for the scale of the killing carried out by the regime. The leading Iranian human rights organization HRANA reported that it had verified the deaths of 3,090 people, including 2,885 protesters, 165 members of the security forces and 21 civilians who did not take part in the demonstrations. Around 3,900 additional deaths are still being examined. The organization said at least 19 of those killed were minors.
Iran International estimated that at least 12,000 people were killed in the crackdown, making it the deadliest in the history of the Islamic Republic.
Testimony obtained by Israel Hayom came from an Iranian exile who managed to make contact with her family in Tehran over the past week. She said she broke down in tears, and they told her: "People have been killed. Don't watch the news, you'll lose your mind. Go to a doctor and ask for anti-anxiety medication."
"My family called me from Tehran and they were terrified," she said. "They were afraid even to leave the house to get food or medicine." According to her, "for a one-minute call they had to pay a lot of money. They told me the calls were monitored, that I shouldn't say anything, and then the line was cut."
She said she had no contact with her family for three days. "Every moment I thought maybe they had been killed. Every moment felt like a thousand years. I wanted to kill myself," she said. "I am sure the families of those who were killed will never be psychologically OK, and some may even attempt suicide, because I experienced all those feelings myself in just three days of uncertainty."
From a friend who remained in Tehran, the exile said she learned that families of those killed are being forced to pay large sums of money to receive the bodies of their loved ones, and are also told to bring a box of sweets as a token of gratitude to regime officials. She also said that another friend who had come to Iran for a Christmas holiday was caught up in the unrest in Tehran and managed to flee to a neighboring country. The friend was shot, and her sister and cousin were killed.
