As American forces gather in the Middle East, the US president is keeping his threats deliberately ambiguous. Only seven days ago, Donald Trump said that "Iran needs new leadership." According to reports, he also instructed his team to prepare a "decisive military plan" and was presented with a range of options by the US War Department.
While it is still unclear whether such an operation will take place and what its consequences would be, it is already possible to identify a "target bank" among the senior ranks of the Iranian regime. These are primarily the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij, who have been under Western sanctions for years. Alongside them are a number of strategic sites that represent vulnerabilities for the Islamic Republic.
The No. 1 target is, of course, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is responsible for the killing of thousands of civilians. At 87, he has ruled the country for 36 years, dictating its course on the nuclear program, support for terrorist organizations in the Middle East, and the repression of his own people.
The Revolutionary Guards' top echelon
Despite the façade of a government, parliament and judiciary, Khamenei effectively rules Iran through appointments, militias and various bodies. Even during the 12-day war, he reportedly feared being assassinated, hiding in a bunker in northern Tehran.
On Tuesday, the opposition outlet Iran International reported that he had returned to a shelter in the capital. His assassination would be a major blow to Tehran and could trigger chaos at the top of the regime. However, as far back as the previous decade, reports spoke of a "secret list" of successors from among senior clerics. Time will tell whether such a move materializes and whether a new ayatollah takes the reins in the coming years. Many Iran experts assess that it is more likely a military figure from the Revolutionary Guards would rise to power.
Another key target is likely the new commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Pakpour. Just last week he warned that his organization had its "finger on the trigger" and cautioned the US and Israel against miscalculation.
The Guards are the central pillar of the regime and number about 190,000 fighters. Pakpour himself was appointed after the elimination of Iran's military leadership in Operation Rising Lion. It can be assumed that a replacement would be found if he were killed, but such a move would deal a moral and tactical blow that would hamper the organization's ability to respond in the immediate term. At the time, Israeli assessments held that the assassinations at the start of Rising Lion prevented a large-scale attack.
Alongside Pakpour are, of course, other senior figures in the Revolutionary Guards and the military who are personally loyal to Khamenei. These include Gholam Ali Rashid, head of the emergency headquarters appointed after his two predecessors were killed; Army Commander Amir Hatami, who rose through the Basij and was integrated into the military by Khamenei; and Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of the army and the Revolutionary Guards. Here, too, these are appointments made by the supreme leader.
The man in charge of repression
If the Trump administration is looking to strike the regime's main instrument of repression, one target is Basij militia commander Gholamreza Soleimani. He is not related to Qassem Soleimani, the former Quds Force commander who was killed. Nonetheless, Gholamreza Soleimani is also under Western sanctions. Since 2019 he has led the civilian militia that is primarily used for the brutal suppression of protests. He has previously boasted that his militia has long operated beyond Iran's borders, with its members deployed to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Another potential target is Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani. Despite jokes about his limited abilities, Qaani is apparently behind the recruitment of Shiite militia operatives from Iraq to suppress protests. Foreign media recently reported that thousands of activists crossed eastward over the border to assist the regime. Some time earlier, Qaani visited Baghdad and apparently held discussions on the matter with militia leaders.
Another figure is Ali Shamkhani, who is described as the head of the nuclear file and one of Khamenei's closest advisers. He previously served as navy commander and later as defense minister. During Operation Rising Lion, he was wounded in a strike but survived.
Strategic sites as well
Alongside regime figures, there are a number of strategic sites that the US could strike. At the top of the list are government institutions in Tehran, including the headquarters of the Supreme National Security Council, the Basij headquarters, the police headquarters, the Iranian intelligence headquarters and the headquarters of the National Iranian Oil Company.
In addition, there are oil reserves, most of which are located in the west of the country, in Khuzestan province near the Iraqi border. A highly extreme scenario involving damage to infrastructure could cause the collapse of Iran's economy, which is already in deep crisis.
Militarily, Iran has in recent months been developing its ballistic missile array and attempting to rehabilitate nuclear sites. During Operation Rising Lion, the Israeli Air Force struck a number of launch sites in western Iran. In recent months, the Institute for Science and International Security published satellite images indicating that the regime is carrying out engineering work at a military base in Parchin, about 32 kilometers south-east of Tehran.
The site has over the years been linked to the development of the triggering mechanism for a nuclear bomb. The institute also published a report stating that while Tehran has carried out repairs and maintenance at nuclear sites at varying levels, it is facing difficulties in restoring capabilities. Still, The New York Times reported this month that the Pentagon presented Trump with an option for a broad and thorough strike on nuclear sites, compared with the strike carried out in the summer. The American official who spoke to the newspaper said that ballistic missile sites are also in the crosshairs.
