If the Abraham Accords ever stood on the edge of collapse, it happened on September 9, 2025. That day, Israeli Air Force jets bombed a building in Doha, Qatar's capital, where Hamas leaders had gathered. The shockwaves from the historic strike reverberated clearly 310 miles (500 kilometers) away in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital. They violently shook the walls of President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed's palace.
"He very much disliked the fact that Israel rampages with its aircraft wherever it wants," said an Israeli official, a senior defense figure until recently, who maintains close ties with Abu Dhabi's political leadership and has met personally with bin Zayed. "It touched him."
Following the Israeli strike, the furious bin Zayed convened an emergency meeting to discuss the UAE's response options – the dominant country on the Arab side of the Abraham Accords. As Israel Hayom first reported, one option raised at the table was a dramatic decision to freeze the accords. "This was the biggest scratch the Abraham Accords have encountered until now," said another Israeli official who has maintained contact with the UAE security leadership for years.
The option to freeze the Abraham Accords did come up at that Abu Dhabi meeting, but ultimately came off the table. Still, on the Emirates' scale – skilled statesmen who usually conduct themselves in a measured and moderate manner – their response to the Doha attack was wild. "A crude and cowardly move, a reckless and aggressive act," bin Zayed described the strike in an official statement issued by the Emirati foreign ministry that same day.
The next day, Israeli defense industries' participation in the air show scheduled in Dubai was canceled, and later the Israeli ambassador, Yossi Shelley, was summoned for a reprimand. "Israel's aggressive and provocative behavior establishes an unacceptable reality," he was told.
However, the most significant diplomatic step bin Zayed took was his decision to fly the day after the Doha strike for a solidarity visit to Qatar. For bin Zayed – who marked the Muslim Brotherhood as his country's greatest enemy, participated in the Arab boycott of Qatar from 2017 to 2020, and views the Gulf state as one of the main threats to Emirati national security – the Qatar visit was a glaring message to Israel that enough is enough.
The crisis surrounding the Doha strike was indeed the peak moment – or more precisely, the low point – in relations between Israel and the UAE since signing the Abraham Accords, but it did not occur in a vacuum. An Israel Hayom investigation, based on conversations with figures in Israel and the Emirates, reveals that for a long time, the palace in Abu Dhabi has felt deep frustration and disappointment with Jerusalem, questioning the benefit they gain from the Abraham Accords. Behind this stand a series of failed economic deals, an ambassador who evokes negative emotions, extremist statements by government ministers, unclear Israeli policy regarding Gaza's future and Judea and Samaria – and no small amount of suspicion toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Emiratis themselves, in keeping with their diplomatic character, will not openly admit their displeasure with Israel, but their patience appears to be running out. A foreign figure recently asked whether the UAE's relationship with Israel is realizing its full potential responded with three words: Not even close.
Below the radar
True, Israel has gained tremendously from the Abraham Accords and normalization with the UAE, and vice versa. The diplomatic breakthrough positioned both countries as regional powers with stability and served as a significant counterweight to Iran's expanding influence. "The Emiratis even talk in closed rooms about establishing a Middle East NATO, with Jewish and Muslim soldiers," said a former senior security official who maintains contacts with Abu Dhabi.
Economically, the Emirates ranks ninth among countries exporting to Israel in 2024, and trade between the countries totals more than 10 billion shekels ($2.8 billion) annually. The tourism industry to Dubai thrives, and it seems every other Israeli has already visited the city on the Persian Gulf's shores. Emirati airlines operate about 120 flights per month to Israel and were the only foreign carriers that did not stop flying to Ben Gurion Airport since October 7, except during security escalations such as the war with Iran.
One Israeli who recently flew to the Emirates is Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who has visited the country three times since entering office, more than any other country. As we reveal for the first time, Sa'ar's latest Emirates visit occurred a few weeks ago and has remained below the radar due to its sensitivity. Security cooperation between the countries also conducts most of its business below the radar, which has helped relations weather "tension points," according to an Emirati official.
However, from the Emirates' perspective, cooperation with Israel has exacted a heavy price. From the moment the Abraham Accords were exposed, many of their Muslim brethren have perceived them as assisting Israel in its struggle against Palestinians and Arabs. "They call us traitors," an Emirati official frankly admits. Recently, the Emirates began wondering whether this heavy price is worth clinging to the Abraham Accords.
"The Abraham Accords put the Emirates on the radar of the Iranians and other Muslim countries. For them, it was a move with many risks," said a senior figure in the cyber industry who has worked with the Emirates for many years. "But when I ask the Emiratis what they gained from the Abraham Accords, their answer is 'a 450% growth in terror attack warnings.' In the 12-day war (the June 2025 Iran-Israel conflict), for example, there were hundreds of Iranian attempts to harm Israelis on Emirati soil, and the Emiratis are overwhelmed with this.
"On the other hand, economically and politically, they are not receiving everything they can from Israel. They are in a mode where they are also being driven out of town and eating the rotten fish."
The situation has worsened since October 7, mainly due to allegations of "genocide" Israel is committing in Gaza, which echoed in the Arab world and penetrated Emirati society itself. "Senior Emiratis control their country very well, but they also hear voices from their people, who identify with the Palestinians in Gaza, and this puts a lot of pressure on them," an Israeli official said. "This pressure slows down the tightening of ties between governments and also between people."
According to a long line of experts and Israeli figures operating in the Emirates, the Abraham Accords are far from yielding the promise embedded in them. "The relationship between Israel and the Emirates has strategic national potential unlike any other, but it is being missed," one of them said.
"The potential for security-technological cooperation between Israel and the Emirates is also far from realization, and that's a shame," agreed Shalev Hulio, CEO of DREAM and one who maintains close contacts with security figures in the Emirates since his previous company, NSO's days. "The Emirates currently operates in a way very few countries know how to conduct, with long-term thinking, investment in advanced technologies, and the ability to move entire systems very quickly. If there is a country aiming to become the next 'Startup Nation,' the Emirates is definitely there."
"The UAE is not an empty ocean. The whole world is eyeing cooperation with them, and if Israel does not do so, they will cooperate with other countries. We have a lot to lose," joined an Israeli official who previously served in an official capacity in one of the Gulf states. "We have achieved much from contact with them, but if we had behaved correctly, we could have achieved twice as much. All the current government lacks is to build trust with them, really."
The basis of suspicion
The word "trust" keeps recurring in the many conversations we have had in recent weeks about Israeli-UAE relations. Usually, it is associated with the name "Netanyahu." Paradoxically, it seems the one struggling to gain the Emirates' trust is precisely the man who signed the Abraham Accords with them. One of the clearest signs of this is that, more than five years after signing the accords, Netanyahu has not been invited for an official visit to the Emirates. Even President bin Zayed's historic visit to Jerusalem, whose details had already been finalized during the previous government's tenure, was canceled by the current government.
While Netanyahu's visit to the Emirates lingers, Naftali Bennett did visit there once, as prime minister, and once about a year ago as a private citizen. On both occasions, he met with Sheikh bin Zayed. Recently, Bennett met with bin Zayed again, secretly, for the third time. Yair Lapid also visited Abu Dhabi, once as foreign minister and once as opposition leader.
According to an Emirati official, the timing of Netanyahu's official visit to Abu Dhabi has not yet been finalized. He compared it to going to the beach – "You go to the beach to enjoy, right? You would not go to the sea on a stormy day, with strong wind and rain. In the current climate it would not be right for the Emirates to invite Netanyahu for a visit. This would only fuel conspiracy theories in the Arab street that the Emirates is working hand in hand with Israel to bomb Gaza and so on."
Israeli officials we spoke with claim Netanyahu holds many shares in creating that stormy "climate." "After the Abraham Accords, in the half-year Netanyahu was still in power, relations experienced a honeymoon," said a figure who speaks with many Emiratis daily. "This continued under the Bennett-Lapid government, which enjoyed the accords' fruits. But since Netanyahu's return to power in 2022, there has been widespread suspicion toward him in the Emirates.
"When the judicial reform began, obviously, that itself did not move them. But they wanted relations with a country whose stability they understand, and suddenly they find Israel drowning in protests. Also on October 7, the Emirates' support for Israel was uncompromising. But as the fighting in Gaza continued, the IDF's aggressive conduct and lack of understanding where Israel is heading did not make them happy."
Several Israeli sources we spoke with agree that what infuriated the Emirates more than anything were extremist statements by government ministers, such as Amichai Eliyahu, who raised the possibility "to drop an atomic bomb on Gaza," and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who suggested to their Saudi neighbors "to continue riding camels in the desert."
Knesset members from Likud who called "to burn Gaza" or "starve" Gazans also did not help diplomatic relations with Abu Dhabi. The Foreign Ministry tore its hair after these statements and tried to explain to the Emiratis that Israel is a democratic country with freedom of expression, where one cannot control every minister's statement. It is not certain that this argument was understood.
"Recently, I sat with one of the emirs' sons, who told me, 'I do not understand – your ministers talk about erasing Gaza and taking over the Temple Mount. Is this really the Israeli position?'" an Israeli official said. "The Emiratis are by their definition a peace-pursuing people, truly neutral. They went with Israel into an alliance of moderates, and suddenly they find Israel as a psychotic player in the Middle East. This stresses them very much."
"In closed conversations, the Emiratis express shock and astonishment at ministers' statements, especially from right-wing parties," said Dr. Yaoz Sever, chairman of AGC consulting firm and chairman of the Israel-Gulf States Chamber of Commerce, who conducts business with the Emiratis daily. "They cannot understand whether these positions represent the people. But since the Emiratis are people who express themselves delicately, their displeasure is mainly expressed in the fact that Netanyahu has not yet been invited to the Emirates. This is the Emirates' quiet and so dignified way of telling Israel 'we are not satisfied.'"
"The rise of the current right-wing government caused significant erosion in relations," agreed Dr. Moran Zaga, lecturer and researcher at the University of Haifa and expert on Gulf states. "Businesses, official visits, and additional contacts slowed or stopped. What is being missed at the first level is the personal connection between leaders. Gulf politics is fundamentally based on personal and tribal connections, and on top of these foundations, additional layers of ideology, pragmatism, and nationalism were built. But the original structure still sets the rules.
"Look, for example, at the warm connection Trump managed to create with Saudi ruler bin Salman. Therefor,e we see to this day how certain Israeli figures receive a warm embrace, while others are pushed out. Sometimes this is expressed in preference for an Israeli opposition figure, simply because the personal connection with him is stronger."
In the complex reality of the Middle East, the October 7 war also gave Israel an opportunity to upgrade its relations with the Emirates, a country whose senior officials hate Hamas no less than we do. "October 7 shook them on insane levels," said an Israeli official who knows the Emirates well. "Hostage release is in their discourse at such a level that on the day the last hostages are released, they will stop everything and go to television. On the other hand, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is difficult for them."
The Emiratis were indeed the main force that mobilized to finance and ship humanitarian aid to Gaza during the war. This move allowed them to prove their concern for the Palestinian population while allowing Israel to continue conducting fighting in the Strip under international pressure. "The thing that succeeds most today in the Israel-UAE relationship is the humanitarian effort in Gaza. There, surprisingly, there is the most fruitful cooperation," said Dr. Zaga. "The Emirates exploit the contact with us to break through and lead the humanitarian arena in Gaza, and they are very proud of it."
At least one figure in the IDF leadership tried at the war's beginning to leverage the interest and harness the Emirates to the day-after issue. "The Emiratis were ready to train Palestinian security mechanisms' personnel so they would enter the Strip," he said. "But in Israel, the Palestinian Authority is taboo to mention. Instead, the Israeli government was finally forced to surrender to American dictates and bring Qatar and Turkey into the Strip, which support the Muslim Brotherhood and constitute one of the greatest threats to the Emirates."
In contrast, official Israeli figures claim the Emiratis are now reaping the seeds they planted in Gaza – while the Israeli government tries as much as possible to reduce Qatari and Turkish involvement in the Strip's rehabilitation, the political echelon encourages Emirati elements to enter the Strip, especially regarding education. As we now reveal, one aspiration is for the Emirates to establish in IDF-controlled areas a network of educational institutions, where they will exploit the experience they accumulated in de-radicalization to influence Gaza's next generation.
"The Emirates have a central role in the day after," one official we spoke with said. "They understood long ago that Islamic education can take the country to bad places, so they hired British and American kindergarten teachers and teachers, replaced the educational staff in the kingdom, and thus grew an educated and tolerant generation in a Muslim country. This thing can also happen in Gaza."
The Emirates are so zealous about their education that early this month it was published that they stopped government subsidies granted to students going to study at British universities due to concerns about Islamic radicalization and Muslim Brotherhood influence on students in the European country.
"To build trust bridges"
Israeli-UAE relations have already known ups and downs. In 2011, the Mossad assassinated senior Hamas figure Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel, causing a break in the secret relations conducted until then between the countries. The connection was restored mainly through a series of security deals conducted underground, including, among other things, the Emirates' purchase of NSO's "Pegasus" offensive cyber software.
Later, Israeli defense industries entered the picture, such as Rafael and Elbit. "Pegasus and the defense industries caused intimate relations to tighten between the Israeli security system and the Emirati one," an Israeli official said. "This also created a direct line between leaders. The security successes led to contacts in fields like medicine, agriculture, and energy, which required normalization agreements to realize. The sense of intimacy and need for cooperation above the radar formed the basis for the Abraham Accords."
The Abraham Accords served the Emirates not only on the practical level but also strategically. "Its main motive for entering the accords was to further expand its influence in the Levant and exploit Saudi distance from this arena," said Dr. Zaga. "In addition, Abu Dhabi leadership explained it saw the Abraham Accords as leverage for creating a diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestinians. But in practice the opposite happened."
The influence race and aspiration for an arrangement with the Palestinians were also the reasons the Emirates joined the "Negev Forum," which united Abraham Accords countries alongside the US and Egypt and aimed to advance political, security, and economic initiatives in the region. But after one publicized summit during the Bennett-Lapid government, the forum's activity ceased and was not renewed under Netanyahu's government. "This is because these countries quickly despaired after a period of tension in the Palestinian arena and difficulty creating legitimacy in the Arab street," Zaga explained.
Another regional initiative that got stuck is the "water for electricity" project, aimed at fighting the climate crisis by purchasing green electricity from Jordan in exchange for exporting desalinated water from Israel with Emirati financing. Emirati officials recently said they are very disappointed that the project is not advancing, partly due to Israeli delays. The Emirates' frustration with regional cooperation with Israel was expressed about three months ago by Dr. Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi, member of the Federal National Council. At the Knesset caucus conference for promoting regional security, he scolded participants via video call – "All Israeli politicians must understand that normalization is not peace, but only an agreement on a piece of paper. What is needed is to build bridges of trust, understanding, and respect."
Although peace efforts between leaders experience turbulence, direct meetings between Israeli entrepreneurs and Emirati investors have helped strengthen ties at the private level. "The Emiratis are amazing hosts, unusually educated, men of the world, and know exactly what they want," said Dr. Sever, whose business activity is concentrated in the Gulf region. "But unlike the Israeli businessman, their main goal is not 'to bring the hit.' Despite being wealthy, the Emiratis do not like wasting money. Business with them is conducted very carefully because many people from all over the world come to the Gulf region, and Dubai in particular, thinking they will make easy money. The reality on the ground is completely different."
"The UAE is one of the best countries in the world to do business in. However, the Emirati investor is educated, sophisticated, and careful, and is likely already in business with superpowers such as the US, Russia, China, and India. Therefore, he will not invest in a deal that is not sustainable," joined Saud Sakher, an engineer and businessman resident of Abu Dhabi who invests in Israeli companies.
Saud, who came to Israel in the first delegation to leave Abu Dhabi after signing the accords, is a good example of the warm connection that can form between Israelis and Emiratis. On his first visit here he visited the Western Wall, Yeruham, and Nazareth, and on his second visit already managed to participate in two weddings, a bar mitzvah, and a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony. "I saw the Israeli community as it is, in its most distilled form – Jews, Druze, Muslims, and Christians living together. True, not everything is perfect, but overall everyone gets along," he said in a conversation conducted in English spiced with Hebrew words. "The Abraham Accords survived the test of October 7, an event that connected the Emirati people to the Israeli people. The connection between the peoples also survived the Gaza war. We want the Abraham Accords to push our countries forward."
"The UAE is not an empty ocean. The whole world is eyeing cooperation with them, and if Israel does not do so, they will cooperate with other countries. We have a lot to lose. All the current government lacks is to build trust with them, really."
"The Emiratis pride themselves on having residents from all countries in the world, and therefore they know how to give respect to every nation and religion," Sever said. "If you arrive in Dubai during Ramadan, it will be decorated accordingly; at Christmas, you will find Christmas trees there; at Hanukkah, menorahs; at Diwali, you will feel like you are in Delhi; and at Halloween, everyone on the street will be in costume. The Emiratis participate in these celebrations happily and enjoy congratulating everyone. I would not call them 'liberal' in the Western sense, but they have a lot of tolerance."
"I am experiencing stormy divorce from the perception that there is an inseparable connection between democracy and liberalism. Precisely the non-democratic countries turn out to be liberal," said another Israeli who spends much of his time in the Emirates and is in contact with Abu Dhabi leadership. One of the moves that amazed this Israeli is the Emirates' decision to reduce its dependence on oil money. "The Emirates reduced state revenues from oil to only about 25% of total state revenues, thereby cutting their dependence on natural resources," he enthused. "In other words, the UAE's success does not stem only from money but also from leadership. The Emirates is not just Burj Khalifa, a Ferrari in the yard, and fancy malls. It is also a school for strategy, geopolitics, education, and leadership.
"Everything so lacking in Israel is found there. There is education cultivating the future generation and a country managed like a good high-tech company. It is a shame that in Israel they cannot understand this and cultivate the strategic connections with them. This is a miss."
Another matter missed in strategic and personal relations with the Emirates concerns the Israeli ambassador to the country. In early 2025, Netanyahu appointed Yossi Shelley, until then Prime Minister's Office director general and formerly Israel's ambassador to Brazil, as ambassador to the Emirates. Shortly afterward, Emirati security personnel complained that Shelley treated them disrespectfully. Israeli media even reported that following this, bin Zayed demanded Shelley be replaced with another ambassador and threatened to expel him from the country.
"They put a terrible ambassador there who almost ruined relations," an Israeli official in contact with the Abu Dhabi palace said. "They looked at him and said, 'What, are the Israelis idiots? Is this who they sent here?' This is another example of how the state is missing the strategic connection with the Emirates." Several officials we spoke with claim that since the affair, Shelley struggles to fulfill his mission. "He does manage to mediate business and economic contacts, but he has no access to the political leadership," one of them said. "He is 'dead man walking.'"
How to proceed?
Failure to recognize the potential embedded in Israeli-UAE relations is also evident in the economic dimension. Though trade volumes between the countries have grown, the wealth is not distributed symmetrically. "In practice, the relationship is almost one-sided," said Oren Helman, CEO of the Israel-Gulf States Chamber of Commerce. "There are many Israeli companies active in the Emirates, exploiting the tax breaks there and financial investments in Israeli technology. The problem is that it is hard to bring the Emiratis to Israel."
In this situation, the State of Israel is losing considerable tax revenue. Several huge investments the Emirates tried to make in Israel also ended in disappointment from the Emirati perspective. This happened for example when the DP World group, controlled by Dubai government, withdrew from the tender to privatize Haifa port after its participation was disqualified for security reasons, and when the decision by Emirati funds to invest $2.3 billion in purchasing parts of the Phoenix Group was blocked due to regulatory restrictions Israel imposed. In both cases it was explained after the fact that canceling the deals stemmed from concern that Israeli pension funds and strategic assets would be managed by a foreign country, especially an Arab one. The Emirates did not like this explanation.
The enormous investment the Emirates planned in the EAPC (Europe Asia Pipeline Company), a project that would significantly increase fuel transport capacity between Eilat and Ashkelon, also came to nothing, this time due to civil-environmental protest, something the Emiratis are a bit less accustomed to. "I am not entering Israel's strategic interests; it is possible the considerations for canceling these investments were justified," said Dr. Zaga, "but because of this and additional reasons, the Abraham Accords are now perceived in the Arab world as a process in decline, despite their survival and despite continuing cooperation."
As Israel aspires to expand the Abraham Accords and recruit Saudi Arabia and additional giant Muslim countries to them, Zaga proposes first concentrating on rehabilitating the existing. "To attract other countries, strong and important to Israel," she said, "there is first of all importance in improving relations and presenting a success story with the Emirates."
