Washington's political establishment has been tracking every hint from the White House about a possible strike on Iran. President Donald Trump has signaled he is weighing further military steps, but behind the scenes, pressure has been building – both from within the administration and from his own electorate – to avoid sliding into a broad war that could shake the political landscape eight months before the November midterms.
The fear of losing Congress
President Donald Trump is at a particularly delicate juncture vis-à-vis Congress, because Republican control of it hinges on a slim margin of seats to begin with. As of now, Republicans hold a relatively narrow majority of 218 seats against 214 Democrats, with three vacant seats set to be filled in special elections in 2026 – a dynamic that could narrow their advantage even further. On top of that, three Republican members occasionally vote against Trump's agenda on certain issues, which tightens the margin still more.
Historically, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms, and sometimes even control of one of the two chambers – a pattern that has recurred in recent decades and made it harder for presidents to advance their agenda in the final years of their term.
For Trump, the risk is not only legislative but personal: losing Republican control of the House could reopen the door to impeachment proceedings. Trump himself had warned previously that Democrats "are just waiting to return to power to launch another witch hunt" against him, following the two impeachment attempts he faced during his first term.
According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted at the end of January, the approval rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters stands at 73%. That represents a notable drop from the start of his second term, when the figure was around 84%, though it still reflects a clear majority within the Republican camp.
By comparison, the same poll found that among the general public the approval rating stands at 37%, and among Democrats and their supporters at just 5% – figures that illustrate how Trump's support base has remained almost exclusively Republican, amid deep partisan polarization.
Fox News cited Republican strategists as noting that a decision to strike Iran "carries domestic political risks heading into the midterms, where voters are far more concerned about the economy than about foreign conflicts" – precisely against this backdrop.
The cost of living front and center
Growth figures for 2025 showed a 2.2% expansion in GDP – a respectable pace, though slightly slower than the previous year. Yet according to recent YouGov data, 24% of Republicans and 23% of all respondents identify inflation and prices as the most important issue facing the US today, placing it at the top of the national priority list.
According to a USA Today report, Republican members of Congress have been urging Trump to convey empathy for "grocery bills, rent, and prescription drugs." Fox News warned that a prolonged confrontation and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could spike energy prices and hurt consumers already anxious about inflation.
The tariff crisis and the Supreme Court shock
The political backdrop grew more complicated still following the Supreme Court ruling on Friday, which struck down most of the tariffs Trump had imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA.
The ruling, led by Chief Justice Roberts, determined that tariff authority rests with Congress – and dealt a blow to a central tool Trump had sought to use to fund his economic agenda. Against this backdrop, opening a new military front could be perceived as a dangerous distraction.
The Epstein affair and anger among younger voters
Adding to the equation is the Jeffrey Epstein affair. A New York Times report described how young Republicans are frustrated with the administration's handling of the document release, viewing it as a "betrayal."
The poll cited in the article found that more than a third of young Republican men consider the opposition to full disclosure of the files to be "very concerning." When that anger intersects with the cost of living, it creates a sense of disconnect between the populist base and the leadership.
In the middle of an election cycle, the White House can ill afford yet another source of erosion among a young audience that turned out in force in 2024.
Trump voters and the aversion to "endless wars"
Trump was re-elected in 2024 on a promise to avoid "endless wars." The Washington Post reported that last year prominent figures in the MAGA camp warned against sliding into a broad war with Iran, arguing that the base has no interest in further military entanglements. While some of those voices quieted after the limited strikes in the summer, the fear of a prolonged campaign has remained.
At the same time, Reuters reported that Trump's advisers have been pushing him to train his attention on voters' economic worries ahead of November's midterms. A senior White House official acknowledged that despite the president's combative rhetoric, the administration has reached no consensus on military action against Iran. At a closed-door briefing last week attended by several senior administration members, those present were told that the economy is the central election issue – according to a source in the room. Trump himself was absent.
Republican strategist Rob Godfrey was unsparing in his assessment. A prolonged standoff with Iran, he said, would pose a real political threat to Trump and the party. "The president must remember that the base that carried him through three consecutive campaigns is deeply wary of military involvement abroad – ending the era of 'endless wars' was an explicit campaign promise of his," Godfrey said. For all the internal dissent, many in Trump's MAGA movement backed the operation that pushed Venezuela's president out of power last month.
Iran, however, is a far harder problem than Venezuela – militarily and diplomatically – and a war could generate real resistance from the very base Trump needs to hold together.
Republican strategist Lauren Cooley offered a narrower opening. Trump supporters could back military action against Iran, she said, but only if it were swift and decisive. "The White House will need to link any action directly to defending America's security and economic stability," she said. A White House official added that Trump "has made clear he always prefers diplomacy, and that Iran must close a deal before it is too late," and that the president has repeatedly stressed that Iran "cannot possess nuclear weapons or the capacity to build them, and must not enrich uranium."
A late-January Politico poll put support for US military action against Iran at 50% among Trump's 2024 voters – the highest figure for any target covered in the survey. Among self-identified Trump supporters and MAGA Republicans, that number climbs to 61%. But Amy Walter, editor of the Cook Political Report, drew a critical distinction: Trump's supporters differentiate sharply between targeted strikes and open-ended wars of the Iraq-and-Afghanistan kind. A limited operation, in their framing, is not a "war" – it is a contained military action. "If he were to say tomorrow that we're sending troops to the Middle East or putting boots on the ground in Venezuela, that's the kind of thing that could blow apart the coalition," she said.
The internal Republican rift over Israel
Running alongside all of this is a fracture inside the Republican tent over Israel. The New York Times described how "a rift over Israel is tearing MAGA apart," with prominent voices including Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens mounting sharp attacks on unconditional support for the Jewish state.
A December 2025 poll from the Manhattan Institute laid bare the divide. A solid majority of longtime Republican voters still regard Israel as a key US ally. But among "new Republicans" – younger or more recently registered party members – the picture is considerably more complicated. Roughly 24% of this group view Israel as a burden on the United States. Only about 39% call it an important ally. The poll also found that roughly 17% of Republicans overall hold a cluster of views classified as "antisemitic," including conspiracy theories and the belief that Israel pulls America into wars that do not serve American interests.
The State of the Union: the moment of reckoning
All of these pressures converge Tuesday evening – Wednesday morning, Israel time – when Trump delivers the State of the Union before a joint session of Congress. It will be the first formal State of the Union of his second term. The address he gave in March 2025, just weeks into the new administration, was a joint session speech rather than a formal State of the Union.
That speech ran for one hour and forty minutes. Trump declared that "America's golden age has only just begun," promising economic relief for working families, lower energy prices, and a tariff policy to power his economic vision. Nearly a year later, the picture looks different. The Supreme Court has struck down that tariff policy. Inflation remains the issue voters rank highest. His overall approval rating has hit a low.
Congressional Republicans are watching closely to see which version of Trump takes the podium – the one who tells the country everything is on track, or the one who shows he understands the real pressures bearing down on ordinary voters. An address that leans into further military confrontation risks reading as a leader out of touch with everyday anxieties. A balanced message – one that sidesteps any commitment to a prolonged war and keeps the emphasis squarely on American interests – could go a long way toward steadying the base.
