The second phase of the joint strike against Iran, the attrition phase, is reaching its peak with daily attacks by US B-52 strategic bombers alongside the rest of the Israeli-American firepower.
According to assessments in Washington and Jerusalem, this phase is expected to last up to two weeks and is meant to achieve two objectives within the broader war plan and strategy.
And there is indeed a strategy. Despite the somewhat dismissive tone adopted by some commentators and media outlets in the US, there is a plan. Increasing evidence suggests that the Iranian regime is under growing pressure, precisely in line with the Israeli-American strategic plan and even somewhat earlier than expected. One outcome has been several approaches by Iran's political leadership to Washington requesting discussions about a ceasefire.
According to Arab diplomatic sources, Turkey is serving as the primary mediator. The sources say the Americans have presented terms of surrender that Iran is still unwilling to accept. Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opposes any dialogue with the Americans. Ali Larijani, who is currently considered the most powerful figure in the regime until a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is determined, has not taken a clear position on the matter.
An obstacle to progress
These approaches from Iran are consistent with the war plan. The strategy was developed over many months by joint US and Israeli teams, with the final go-ahead given after one of the meetings between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During that meeting, the two agreed on the assessment that Iran is the main third-party factor obstructing progress in every arena across the Middle East.
The first implementation, effectively a pilot phase, came in June during the "Rising Lion" war, which demonstrated that the regime was far weaker than the image it seeks to project.
That demonstration was aimed largely at the Americans and helped persuade Trump to join the attack. In the months that followed, Iran was given an opportunity to agree to concessions, mainly regarding its nuclear program, but it chose to continue with the same approach. Moreover, as we reported in Israel Hayom and was later confirmed by US envoy Steve Witkoff, the Iranians attempted to deceive the Americans.
During the two most recent meetings between Netanyahu and Trump, the final details of the plan were agreed upon and the timetable was set. Within this plan, which involves unprecedented diplomatic and military cooperation between the two countries, there is one disagreement regarding the ultimate target.
President Trump believes that ending the war will involve one or more figures from the current regime. Such figures would formally announce the laying down of arms, direct the military against anyone attempting to continue fighting and maintain governmental continuity until a new regime emerges.
A new leader needed
Trump told CNN on Friday that Iran's leadership is extremely weakened and that he wants a leader who would be good for both Israel and the US even if that person is a religious figure and not democratic.
"Iran today is not the Iran of a week ago," he said. "A week ago it was a powerful country, and now it is completely weakened."
This approach represents one possible end-of-war scenario. According to it, some civilian leaders who are not part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will soon break ranks, announce readiness to discuss a ceasefire and agree to lay down their arms.
The expectation is that the Guards will oppose such a move, just as they rejected requests by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi not to bomb Gulf states. At that point, the regular Iranian army would step in under political directives to attempt to impose order.
This approach is also why not all regime leaders were targeted by Israeli and US airstrikes, and why not all military commanders and bases were attacked. Israel Hayom previously reported that members of the Revolutionary Guards are expected to take control of most military units involved in active fighting against Israel and the Americans.
Militias enter the picture
The attrition phase is expected to expand that trend, neutralizing large portions of Iran's military power, particularly the Revolutionary Guards' missile and drone launch capabilities.
Once the volume of missile fire has been reduced to a minimum, a broader phase is expected to begin. This would include bringing ethnic militias from Iran's peripheral regions into active fighting, conducting targeted assassinations through local and other ground forces and advancing diplomatic efforts aimed at regime change.
According to a report in The Washington Post, one US intelligence assessment questions whether a real regime change can be achieved under the approved war plan.
A US official told Israel Hayom that this assessment is only one of several scenarios presented to the president and his team and refers mainly to the short-term timeframe of the war.
"The president has the staying power and the willingness to continue fighting as long as necessary to remove the threat posed by the Iranian regime and achieve the objectives of the operation," the official said.
According to this official and the war plan, a significant move to secure the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is expected as early as the beginning of the week in order to stabilize fuel prices. Those increases have been relatively moderate compared with earlier pessimistic forecasts, and the Americans will try to restore oil and gas production and transit from the Gulf as quickly as possible. That is one of the reasons most vessels of the Iranian Navy have been sunk.
