Washington and Gulf capitals assessed Monday that Iran plans to intensify attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities, despite the risk that the United States could respond by fully disabling Iranian energy infrastructure. Diplomatic sources from the Gulf said the escalating pattern of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy sites reflects two conclusions.
The first is Iran's broadening effort to pressure the US by driving up global oil prices through those attacks. The second is the extreme pressure on the Iranian regime, and the sense within it that all available measures must be used – with no red lines – to prevent its collapse.
According to those sources, the impact of American and Israeli strikes has been felt deeply, and as a result, the regime has shifted toward the more extreme position advocated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – that negotiations are pointless, that there should be no limits on attacks, and that only severe damage to the global economy will end the war.
Before the operation, this scenario was considered and gamed out, but the assessment was that Iranian strikes against Gulf oil facilities would come only at a later stage. "If Iran is attacking the oil facilities of its Arab neighbors, it means it feels the end is near and must use every maximum measure available to force the Americans to stop," one of the Gulf diplomats said.
The American response scenarios for such attacks include insurance backing and naval escorts for tankers passing through the Gulf, neutralizing threats from the Iranian navy, and heavy strikes on missile and drone launchers targeting the Gulf states. Even so, Iran still has enough launchers to sustain the campaign.
Simultaneously, the Americans are increasing their own natural gas exports and working to boost oil output from other countries. Among the options being weighed is easing sanctions on Russia to allow it to expand oil exports, primarily to India, a major consumer of Gulf energy. The current expectation is that this situation will last several days – perhaps somewhat longer – with oil prices rising to some degree, more so in Europe and the East than in the US, but not over the long term.
The American scenario anticipates that after several difficult days, Iranian attacks will taper off due to the daily attrition from American and Israeli strikes and from damage to the regime's leadership and infrastructure. On the offensive side, a hard strike against Iranian oil fields and facilities is also on the table, and a symbolic strike of that kind may come soon as a warning to the Tehran regime.
Over the longer term, the American war plan is projected to yield very positive economic outcomes for the US and the Middle East. These stem from several factors: the removal of the Iranian threat to Gulf states and to oil and gas shipping lanes; opportunities to develop Iranian oil and gas fields in partnership with Western – and primarily American – companies; the development of Iran's mineral reserves, which are used in advanced industries; and more.
For example, Iran holds half of one of the world's largest natural gas fields. That field is Qatar's primary source of revenue, but Tehran has failed to develop its share.
In this context, Israel's strike on the refinery and storage facilities near Tehran was coordinated with the Americans, but subsequently drew criticism from Gulf states, who fear further escalation against their own oil fields.
Discussions on the topic have taken place among the Gulf states and the US, and the handling of Iranian oil fields and facilities has been left to the Americans. An Israeli official told Israel Hayom that Iran had been attacking Gulf oil facilities before, and unrelated to the Israeli strike on Tehran's oil infrastructure. According to the official, Israel struck – among other reasons – because of Iranian missile targeting of Israeli infrastructure.
The official also assessed that the current Tehran leadership, facing acute distress, is playing every remaining card to bring the war to a quick end. "They are willing to jeopardize their main economic sector – oil – for the chance that the US will decide to stop, due to economic pressure."
On the question of fire directed at Israel, the official said Iran's current strategy amounts to a war of attrition – firing individual missiles during daylight hours to disrupt the Israeli economy, while carefully managing its weapons inventory to sustain weeks of harassment. Israel and the US, the official said, are working to degrade launch capabilities, hit symbols of regime power and its infrastructure, and will strike hard at civilian infrastructure, including oil facilities, if necessary.
"Iran is in a far worse position than we are. They are simultaneously waging a battle for public opinion, trying to convince audiences in the US and the West to pressure their governments into halting the strikes before the regime falls or loses its grip on the military units and the country as a whole."
