Identifying processes
"The idea of the war works like this," says a senior security official: "With one hand, we grip the regime's throat with force. With the other hand, we shake it unexpectedly – again and again and again – until its neck snaps."
The first hand is the orderly military effort: first the air-defense systems, then the ballistic missiles, then the remnants of the nuclear project, and then the regime's repression headquarters.
The second hand was the surprises Israel had planned. As of yesterday, those surprises have been delayed. The Mossad and the IDF disagree about who is responsible. There has never been great love between the two organizations, ever since the days of Rising Lion, and now there is a battle over credit for success.
The assessment in Israel is that even the military chokehold itself, if it continues as planned, will cause irreversible damage to the regime.
"It is fascinating to see a boutique and an industrial factory working together," they say in Israel. Our Air Force meticulously plans attacks that are enormous by Israeli standards, yet still always rely on ingenuity – on squeezing 150 percent of the potential from the equipment and munitions. The Americans arrive and simply grind the targets into dust with disproportionate firepower. They have never heard of the munitions economy.
"War is not a choose-your-own-adventure program," Netanyahu said this week. Only in state commissions of inquiry can you demand a perfectly detailed plan in advance that unfolds exactly as designed.
Planning existed, of course. The prime minister detests PowerPoint presentations almost as much as he detests Khamenei, and he has been waging war against them in meetings for years, with little success in eliminating the threat. And yet, when he met Trump at the White House exactly a month ago, he arrived with a presentation –seven slides laying out the full principles of the joint war.
"How do you endure it?" Trump asked, referring to two and a half years of war with another round still ahead.
"You are a prehistoric tiger, with sharp teeth," he said. "But we are the honey badger – a small animal, tough, but wild and relentless."
The wounded Iranian beast's way of fighting the badger and the tiger is surprisingly similar to Hamas'. Sinwar relied on exploiting Israeli society's sensitivity to hostages and the Western world's sensitivity to civilian casualties. The Revolutionary Guards are relying on Western sensitivity to rising energy prices. They are counting on dragging out the clock.
In Israel, the new rule is to focus on achieving the objectives, not the calendar: not dates but processes.
The plight of the Qataris
Shortly after the war broke out, Qatar announced the shutdown of its natural gas liquefaction facility due to an Iranian strike. The consequences were immediate: the global gas surplus vanished, and energy prices surged.
The United States is extremely sensitive to energy prices, especially this president, who returned to power on the shockwaves of runaway inflation.
But then someone briefed the president that it might be part of a broader scheme: coordination between Iran and Qatar to close the facility in order to pressure an end to the war. According to the claim, Trump was furious and made clear that it would not continue.
The plight of the Qataris is touching: without Iran, there is no need for a forward American base in Doha, and without such a base, the influence of the gas emirate evaporates. Perhaps that is why, since the start of the war, the Qataris have sent several unusually conciliatory messages to Israel. Suddenly, Israeli bombings are no longer described on Al Jazeera as genocide.
At this rate, even Tucker Carlson – lubricated by vast Qatari funding – may rediscover the wonders of the Jewish people.
They may deserve it. But even some of our great friends, like the UAE, are on the receiving end of this war. For their sake and ours, the war should end with a decisive outcome.
Unlike us, they did not build their state under fire. If they become the frontline in the coming years, we will be held responsible, with all the problematic consequences.
Out of desperation, Qatar's leaders may expel Hamas from their territory. The pretext is Hamas's failure to condemn the Iranian attacks. The real reason is a desire to move closer to the West.
The possible end of the ayatollahs' regime also signals the end of the era of mediation. If there is no Shiite terror empire, there are no hostages to return, no wars to end, and no money to lubricate.
Hamas leaders are not having an easy time either. Turkey is unlikely to welcome them – especially now that Erdoğan has discovered that Trump, whom he believed was in his pocket, has been conducting a long and secret affair with the Kurds he despises.
After all, what is Hamas to do when dad bombs mom?
This week, Iran's embassy in Doha opened a condolence book for the death of Khamenei. The Iranians expected that after so many years of cooperation, Hamas leaders would come to pay their respects. On the other hand, that is not a message that would be received well by the Qataris these days, while they are being hit by ballistic missiles.
So they hesitated, and hesitated – and the condolence book, for now, remains empty.
Herzog's intersection
Some people are experts at delaying gratification. One gets the impression that Trump is not among them.
He reportedly scolded President Herzog for delaying, in his view, too long in granting Netanyahu a pardon.
The coming months may give him an opportunity to exercise that muscle. For the president, Netanyahu's trial –dramatic as it is – is merely a symptom of a deeper problem.
His years as president have turned him into a traffic cop at the intersection between the judicial system and the right-wing camp. That intersection is now blocked after a massive pile-up.
To clear the intersection, a comprehensive deal will be needed.
If Herzog does not grant a full pardon, the trial will continue – and the political brawl will continue. If he does grant one, the coalition will continue the judicial reform, and the opposition will continue believing justice was not done.
The problem is obvious: how can such a package deal be reached on the eve of elections?
Therefore, it seems the decisive moment in the pardon discussions will arrive only after the elections, during coalition negotiations.
If, as most polls suggest, neither bloc has a majority, it is not unreasonable to imagine that the President's Residence will host two parallel marathons: consultations on forming a government, and negotiations on a comprehensive deal.
