"It is getting close. The stage at which we will be able to choose how to end the war, either through an agreement on our terms with whoever remains from the current regime, or through the complete removal of all its representatives, with others taking their place," a senior US source told Israel Hayom. The source estimated that this was a matter of only a few weeks. "It appears that the meeting between President Donald Trump and the president of China will take place on the new date, in another five weeks."
The source clarified that the final stage, after most of Iran's launch capabilities are dismantled and the problem in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, could involve continued low-intensity fighting. But, it would be fighting that would allow a return to normal life in the countries of the region, the reconstruction of what was destroyed, and preparations for a possible major change in Iran.
The leaderships in Israel and the US intend to focus on the two main goals expected to bring about the final stage: continuing to eliminate leaders and commanders, and the sustained degradation of Iran's launch capabilities. Alongside that, attacks on Basij personnel in the streets are continuing, a move seen as highly important for the morale of the opposition in Iran.
Threat to Iranian oil
According to Israeli and US sources, the flow of internal information coming from Iran and helping prepare strikes is steadily increasing, including information used in the elimination of senior Iranian officials. The information is arriving despite Iran's internet blackout and through a variety of channels. Alongside this specific intelligence, reports claim defections by soldiers and police officers. A senior Israeli official said defecting forces might assist in the internal struggle against the regime.
As for the Strait of Hormuz, a combined US plan of action is taking shape that is supposed to reopen the maritime passage within days. The plan includes military solutions to the Iranian threat against tankers and cargo ships, the formation of a naval force to escort them, and the presentation of a real threat to Iran's own oil industry. That threat includes blocking the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian oil tankers currently heading toward China and India, as well as direct strikes on Iranian facilities so that they are disabled. President Trump added to the threat when he said his military could shut down all of Iran's electricity supply within minutes. Any attack on oil facilities would be carried out only after Iran's launch capabilities had been reduced to a minimum.
Internal opposition to Hezbollah
In Lebanon, internal voices are growing louder in calling on the government to implement its decisions against Hezbollah. Those calls are coming from leaders of all communities: Christians, Sunni Muslims, the Shiite Amal movement and the Druze.
In contacts between Christian representatives and French President Emmanuel Macron, the Christian side raised the possibility of rearming the Christian Phalanges as one of the forces that would act against Hezbollah. This is one of the solutions that has come up in light of the Lebanese army's helplessness in the struggle against Hezbollah.
The other possibility raised in talks among the countries involved was the inclusion of the forces of Syrian President al-Julani. Those forces have already begun concentrating beyond the border, but al-Julani himself is hesitating, and so is the Lebanese government. The concern in Lebanon is that al-Julani's forces would exploit the opportunity to seize territory in Lebanon and harm additional populations, thereby reigniting the civil war. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear that its ground activity in southern Lebanon is limited to dominant ridgelines and military targets as far as the Litani River.
