Israel is weighing a significant shift in its Lebanon strategy – scaling back its military posture to the framework that governed operations there before Operation Roaring Lion began, in a move designed to give Washington the space it needs to launch negotiations with Iran.
That is the picture emerging from two diplomatic sources who spoke with Israel Hayom. According to them, the possibility is actively on the table in discussions between Israel and the US. Under this framework, Israel would retain the right to strike in response to immediate threats, rocket fire, and missile launches toward Israeli territory – as stipulated in the original November 24 agreement – but all other offensive activity would be curtailed.
The sources also noted that there is no demand for Israel to withdraw from the territories it has seized in recent weeks. One of them added that Israel had, in effect, carried out the bulk of its planned target eliminations in the intense strikes on Wednesday, and could therefore accept the proposed restrictions. He further assessed that Israel launched those strikes with an understanding of the developing situation – one that may result in constraints on its Lebanon operations.
The November 24 agreement was brokered by the US and France. The American letter of guarantees attached to it stated explicitly that Israel would retain military freedom of action in Lebanon if Hezbollah violated the terms, including attempts to rearm, the return of armed operatives to the south, or any firing toward Israel.
During the period between the signing of that agreement and the start of the current hostilities, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon hundreds of times and eliminated hundreds of operatives. Reverting to that framework would leave Israel with its freedom of action intact, while maintaining control over the new security strip south of the Litani River.
This framework addresses Iran's demand to halt unprovoked strikes against its Lebanese proxy organization while preserving the IDF's freedom of action against Hezbollah operatives south of the Litani – who under the original agreement were supposed to have withdrawn northward – as well as allowing Israel to prevent preparations for rocket fire toward its territory and attempts to rearm.
That said, if this decision is indeed taken, the indirect diplomatic implication would be an acknowledgment of the link between the two theaters – Iran and Lebanon.
