The announcement of a merger among all Arab parties Hadash–Ta'al, Ra'am and Balad and the reestablishment of the Joint List is set to have a significant impact on Israel's political system. This comes at a time of deep polarization within Jewish society in the post October 7 massacre era and amid the Gaza War.
The leaders of the Arab parties, who are themselves deeply divided, are presenting the merger as a response to the Israeli state's alleged failure to combat rising crime in Arab society. This, of course, comes without accepting responsibility and with a clear disregard for the possibility that the problem may lie within Arab society itself. It is far more likely that the shared interest of the party leaders stems from the understanding that together they wield greater electoral power and that unification significantly boosts voter turnout in the Arab sector.
The last time the Arab parties ran together was in the 2020 election, when the Joint List won 15 seats and pushed Arab voter turnout to 65 percent. In the 2021 election, after the alliance collapsed, the Arab parties fell to just 10 seats, as turnout in the Arab sector dropped sharply to 45 percent.
One inevitable consequence of the renewed alliance will be a further radicalization in the rhetoric of Arab party leaders, who continue to speak venomously against the State of Israel and its just war against the Palestinians. While Raam chairman Mansour Abbas has already closed the gap with his Joint List partners through increasingly controversial statements, for the others this rhetoric reflects a long standing ideological doctrine.
Hadash chairman Ayman Odeh has accused Israel of carrying out massacres and starvation in Gaza and even welcomed the release of Hamas terrorists as part of the hostage deal. Taal chairman Ahmad Tibi has referred to Israel Defense Forces soldiers as "murderers in uniform" and "thugs." Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh has described the killing of terrorists as a "massacre of innocent civilians." As for the outrageous statements of Hadash MK Ofer Cassif, who among other things supported the disgraceful lawsuit against Israel at The Hague and remains a Knesset member only because several MKs from the anti Netanyahu bloc, including Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, abstained from the vote to remove him, it is better not to dwell on them.
While the renewed Joint List is expected to be more extreme than ever, its formation will also lead to a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the Knesset.
Based on past experience, unifying the Arab parties will significantly raise voter turnout among Arab citizens. When the parties run separately, most polls predict they would win around 10 seats, compared with 59 for the anti Netanyahu bloc and 51 for the Netanyahu bloc. However, assuming the political map otherwise remains unchanged and that nearly 10 percent of Jewish votes could be wasted on parties that are currently unlikely to pass the electoral threshold, including Religious Zionism, Blue and White and the reservists party, the alliance could yield 16 seats for the Joint List. In such a scenario, the "Anyone But Bibi" bloc would fall to 55 seats, compared with 49 for the Netanyahu bloc, a result that definitively buries any possibility of forming a government by Netanyahu's opponents without relying on the Joint List's support.
In conclusion, there is little doubt that a renewed unification of the Arab parties could lead to an unprecedented political crisis if no bloc is able to form a government. Rather than sliding back into an era of political instability, in which Israel was forced into five election campaigns in three and a half years before a decision was reached, and instead of allowing the chaos agents of the Joint List to paralyze Israel's political system, the country can seize this rare opportunity to finally establish a Zionist, statesmanlike national unity government that the people of Israel so desperately need. If the return of the Joint List brings this about, it should be welcomed.
