The recent meeting between Israeli and Syrian delegations in Paris—under the auspices of the United States—is an important diplomatic step toward normalization between the two neighboring countries. As a result, we are moving from a state of perpetual war to an active security coordination structure with the establishment of a joint mechanism overseen by the Americans, whose purpose is to share military intelligence and prevent border incidents, and especially terrorist attacks against Israeli villages.
Regarding the future of the Syrian regime, let us recall that at the beginning of the civil war that began in February 2011, Ehud Barak dared to say that the regime of Bashar al-Assad "will fall in the coming weeks"...
We have always monitored the situation in the Arab world closely. Israeli intelligence services are capable of knowing the inner workings of regimes and military leadership in minute detail, as well as the deployment of their land, air, and naval forces. We can assess our enemies' intentions in the immediate term, and sometimes we can be mistaken in our assessments, as was the case in 1973 before the Yom Kippur War, or regarding Hamas's intentions before October 7, 2023.
However, we are unable to analyze political processes and predict the medium- and long-term future. No one foresaw a popular uprising in Egypt against President Mubarak, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, or the collapse of the Soviet Union… Therefore, regarding the recent riots in Iran, we should be cautious about the future of the ayatollahs' regime.
Admittedly, the new Syrian leader is a former Islamist terrorist. He doesn't have full control of his troops and doesn't control all of his country's territory. Clashes against the Kurds continue in Aleppo, this major city in northern Syria. However, faced with this fragile regime, Israel finds itself in a position of strength and now dictates the agenda in Syria and Lebanon.
Faced with Hezbollah's refusal to dismantle its entire military arsenal and its daily threats against Israel, the intense American pressure exerted across the globe is proving highly effective. We should also acknowledge that the geopolitical landscape has completely shifted with the Iranian withdrawal from Syria and the strengthening of the Sunni bloc in the Middle East.
In this context, and given the failures of Russia and Europe in our region, close coordination with Washington is necessary to support our security demands, to ward off excessive influence from Ankara and above all military support on the ground from Turkey because it will considerably limit the IDF's free rein.
We should also demand buffer zones in the north and south of Syria and insist that no man's land territory can have long-term disputes, as was the case during the negotiations on the armistice lines of 1949. At the time, the line drawn in March 1923 by the British and the French (Paulet-Newcombe line) did not take into account the natural border of the Jordan and led to numerous attacks against Israel concerning the control of water resources.
To better understand the positive evolution of the Israeli position in the Middle East, and especially with regard to Syria, let us highlight a brief historical overview:
After the Yom Kippur War, the IDF troops were about fifty kilometers from Damascus.
On May 31, 1974, a withdrawal agreement was signed with Syria. Damascus remained intransigent in its demands and insisted on the withdrawal of all territories conquered in 1967 and 1973, including the entire Golan Heights. Initially, the Syrians also refused the presence of UN forces on their territory. Following lengthy discussions and strong pressure from the United States and the Soviet Union, Damascus agreed to a United Nations observer force (UNODF).
This disengagement agreement signed in Geneva in 1974 was not a peace agreement but it represented a first step towards normalization.
For five decades, the Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist. Hafez al-Assad had invaded Lebanon, supporting Hezbollah and its terrorist acts. The West, and France in particular, stood by and watched in utter dismay.
The bloody crimes perpetrated by the Assad family date back to 1982. Hafez al-Assad is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people, including hundreds of innocent children, in a massacre unprecedented in its brutality and horror in the city of Hama. His son, Bashar, continued this barbarity, savagery, and use of chemical weapons throughout the civil war that erupted during the Arab Spring.
On September 6, 2007, Israeli aircraft destroyed a Syrian nuclear site built with the help of North Korea and Iran.
After triggering a civil war in 2011 that killed more than 500,000 people and caused the exodus of millions of refugees, the butcher of Damascus is rehabilitated and regains his place among the Arab nations.
On June 24, 2019, Israel, along with the national security advisors of the United States and Russia, proposed a peace plan that called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria, financial aid for the country's reconstruction, and presidential elections. As part of negotiations with Arab states, Netanyahu believed this plan could drive Iran out of the Golan Heights and end the civil war.
This is not the first time Israel has tried unsuccessfully to negotiate a peace agreement with Syria. Let us briefly recall the numerous trips to Damascus by Henry Kissinger, Warren Christopher, and James Baker; Benjamin Netanyahu's proposals to Hafez al-Assad in 1996; the negotiations led by Ehud Barak in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in 2008; and the famous meeting in Geneva between President Bill Clinton and Assad. In October 1991, at the Madrid Peace Conference, Israeli delegations were present for the first time to negotiate normalization between the two neighboring countries.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, precipitated by the defeat of Hezbollah, the Israeli army extended its positions on the Golan Heights and to the south precisely to prevent the new Islamist power from launching terrorist attacks against Israeli villages and from attacking minorities, particularly the Druze.
In April 2025, Syrian President Ahmad al-Share sent a letter to his American counterpart, Donald Trump, declaring himself open to normalizing relations with Israel under certain conditions, stating that he would not allow Syria to become a source of threat to the Jewish state. The meeting between the American president and Syria's new leader in Riyadh accelerated normalization. Meetings between Israeli and Syrian representatives took place in Azerbaijan, Europe, and notably in Paris.
These talks will continue in the coming weeks. They include mutual recognition of the sovereignty of Israel and Syria, but above all, security guarantees that preserve the presence of the IDF on the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon.
After the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights signed on March 25, 2019 by President Trump, a withdrawal from the Golan Heights is no longer conceivable.
Of course, the prospect of Damascus establishing full diplomatic relations with Jerusalem is fraught with obstacles and still seems distant. Therefore, we should be vigilant and very cautious in negotiations, while remaining pragmatic in order to finally guarantee our absolute security in the north of the country.
