After having a Hezbollah anti-aircraft missile fired at a drone on a reconnaissance mission over Lebanon on Wednesday, Israel has found itself facing a dilemma. On the one hand, not retaliating will undermine its deterrence on the northern border. On the other hand, it might escalate tensions in a region that is already on edge.
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Wednesday's incident was not the first time Hezbollah targeted Israeli drones operating over Lebanon. In the past, however, it used to act within a clear context and for an understandable reason, which was not the case on Wednesday. Although the IAF has been operating intensively in the Lebanese skies in recent days, the matter was broadcast extensively in the Lebanese media and social networks, and it was therefore known that it was a routine rather than hostile activity.
It seems that Hezbollah was trying to deter Israel and fulfill leader Hassan Nasrallah's promise to target Israeli aircraft operating in the Lebanese airspace. It might also have been an attempt of a payback for Israel's attack on the Damascus airport last summer, which resulted in months-long tensions on the border.
Claims that Hezbollah's actions were meant to signal to the Biden administration to make haste in lifting sanctions of Iran, their patron, are less plausible. The exact opposite might be true: Iran is interested in Lebanon remaining under the radar at the moment, as Israel links Hezbollah tourism to the Iranian nuclear deal, which the Biden administration vowed to rejoin.
Wednesday's fire was apparently carried out from Russian anti-aircraft batteries that had been previously smuggled into Lebanon. Hezbollah has so far used them sparingly so as not to provoke Russia's anger and to preserve this strategic weapon for a rainy day.
It is unclear why the Air Force refrained from destroying the battery, as it often does with attacks contributed to Syria. Anti-aircraft weapons have for years been defined as game-changing, along with precision kill weapons and anti-ship missiles, and Israel is putting tremendous effort into preventing their transfer to Hezbollah, which is interested in them in order to undermine Israel's air superiority in Lebanon.
Wednesday's debates over a possible retaliation conveyed a certain hesitation. Refraining from reacting to the incident will send a message to Hezbollah that the action is acceptable, which might result in more attacks. This is a dangerous precedent for the creation of a missile-launching habit that is well-known from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. If so, it will, later on, result in the need for Israel to retaliate much more harshly, leading to an even larger escalation.
Of course, a retaliation could also lead to an immediate escalation now. This is a calculated risk that Israel must take into account, even at the cost of a few days' fighting in the north. Hezbollah will certainly conduct itself based on Israel's response, although one cannot help but struggle to understand why Hezbollah would be interested in a conflict at this time in the first place.
Lebanon is on the verge of an economic and health collapse. Hezbollah is preoccupied with international problems and is very unlikely to gain public sympathy if it drags the nation into a bloody clash at this time.
Following the Damascus airport strike last summer, Hezbollah tried to carry out a sniper attack at the Gladiola outpost on the Israel-Lebanon border. Three members of Hezbollah came near the outpost to kill Israeli soldiers. The IDF, which followed them until they entered Israeli territory, decided not to eliminate or capture them but let them flee, allowing Hezbollah to roll back a foolish step.
The move provoked the condemnation of the military echelon, which wondered if the political-security elite has lost its will to fight altogether.
Wednesday's drone attack shows that it's unlikely that Hezbollah understood the message. The organization did not initiate an escalation, but it continues to challenge and sting Israel and shape new rules in the region. The IDF needs to sharpen its message, and what was until now unclear through words, must be conveyed through missiles.
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