On July 14, 1789, the day the storming of the Bastille marked the beginning of the French Revolution, King Louis XVI summed up the day's events in his diary with two words: "Nothing." He meant that the hunting expedition he had gone on had been unsuccessful. He did not know that within a few short years he would lose his throne, and his head.
The early stages of the Syrian revolution in March 2011 were also marked by local, limited incidents in provincial towns. In the first weeks and even months, it appeared that nothing fundamental would change and that the protesters would not succeed in toppling Bashar al-Assad's regime.
That is how protests and revolutions unfold, and so do major wars. They are not measured in hours or days, and sometimes not even in months. Anyone standing with a stopwatch in hand is bound to be disappointed.
This is also the nature of the revolution now taking shape in Iran, which is taking its first steps without either the Iranian people or the regime that rules them fully realizing it. The train of change has left the station in Tehran, even as the nuclear and missile train also departed some time ago. One can only hope that the train of change reaches its destination first.
According to the regime itself, the protests Iran witnessed two weeks ago were the most severe since the ayatollahs came to power. Ostensibly, the authorities managed to extinguish the flames, but across Iran the embers are still glowing.
Anger at the regime, a deep sense of revulsion toward it and the economic hardship driving people into the streets are all intensifying. In the end, they will erupt again like a volcano. Each wave of protest weakens the regime further, until eventually, and it is impossible to know exactly when, one of the coming waves will bring it down.
Trump apparently decided at the last moment that the stars had not yet aligned for a decisive strike on Iran. After all, he has no desire to repeat George Bush's mistake by sending hundreds of thousands of American soldiers to occupy Iran and getting bogged down in a quagmire that would haunt him and his troops, as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.
What Trump wants is to deliver an effective, focused blow that would shake the foundations of the Iranian regime and encourage the masses to pour into the streets and overthrow it. Even so, such a move could provoke a desperate Iranian response against the US and its allies in the Gulf, and against Israel as well. That is why it is preferable to proceed cautiously, rather than gamble and become entangled.
Beyond that, the US is, as the saying goes, like a giant aircraft carrier. It needs time to change course and marshal force ahead of a strike. But there is no doubt that Trump wants to hit Iran and, if possible, also get rid the regime that governs it.
Human rights or democracy do not appear to top Trump's list of priorities. After all, some of his closest friends, such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, are hardly enlightened rulers. Trump is acting because he believes that striking Iran, as he did earlier with Venezuela and potentially in the future by taking control of Greenland, is the right way to strengthen the US in today's world.
Trump can be counted on to find a pretext, even if it takes several weeks or months. The protesters in Iran, and especially the ayatollahs' regime, can also be counted on to provide him with such a pretext. In any case, Trump does not feel obligated to offer explanations to the UN or the international community, only to his voters, who want victory, nothing more.
For now, fingers should be crossed for the protesters in Iran and preparations made for what lies ahead, because the next round, whether between Iran and the US or between Iran and Israel, is only a matter of time.
Since the conclusion of Operation Rising Lion, it is possible that the Iranian regime, perhaps prematurely, is seeking to take revenge on Israel. It also wants to return to the path that existed before October 7, aimed at advancing its plan to bring about Israel's collapse. The story with Iran is therefore far from over, and if Trump does not do the job, Israel will be forced to do it itself.
