When British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was informed of the Allied victory at the Battle of El Alamein in November 1942, a battle that marked a turning point in World War II and reversed the momentum toward the eventual defeat of Nazi Germany, he famously responded: "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
What was true then is also true today with regard to Iran. Change is on the way, and it will eventually reach Tehran. But we are only at the beginning of the road, and time will be required, above all determination and persistence on the part of the Iranian people and the free world, before the longed-for change comes about.
The dramatic events of the past two weeks are undoubtedly unprecedented. What distinguishes what we are witnessing in Iran today from the past is a combination that could prove fatal for the regime in Tehran, if not today then tomorrow: the convergence of a large-scale popular protest that increasingly resembles a volcanic eruption, and a determined US president who has recently demonstrated that he does not merely talk but also acts.
The protest in Iran is no longer a limited, localized demonstration by a single sector of Iranian society. This time, the streets are filled with young and old, men and women, students, merchants and blue-collar workers. All of them feel they have nothing left to lose and are even prepared to risk their lives to bring down the hated regime. Facing them is a US president who believes that rallying in support of the protesters in Iran is the right thing to do.
It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in Iran, because doing so requires trying to foresee the decisions and actions of a single individual in the White House, President Trump, as well as the choices made by ordinary people in the streets of Iran. Such attempts have failed time and again in the past, for example during the Arab Spring revolutions, when masses of protesters who poured into the streets, sometimes on a spur-of-the-moment decision, toppled regimes that had been considered strong, stable and seemingly immune to any threat.
Still, it is important to remember that the starting point of the events in Iran was Operation Rising Lion, during which Israel, followed by the US, took care not to harm the Iranian people, instead focusing the blows on the regime's leadership and its military capabilities.
During the operation, it became clear that the Iranian regime, which had terrorized its own people and its surroundings and also threatened Israel, was nothing more than a paper tiger, incapable of defending Iran and incapable of defending itself. This, in turn, helped shatter the barrier of fear that the regime had imposed on the Iranian public.
There is therefore no basis for the claim that a strike on Iran would cause Iranians to rally behind the regime they so deeply despise. On the contrary, it can be assumed that any blow inflicted on Iran will serve as a source of encouragement and inspiration for the Iranian people, fanning the flames of rebellion and protest in Iran's streets.
After all this, we must set for ourselves and for our allies a single, unavoidable objective: the downfall of the regime in Tehran. One of the lessons Israel has drawn from the events of October 7 is that we must not allow an enemy to entrench itself and grow stronger along our borders. Instead, we must confront the danger and eliminate it when we identify it. This lesson applies not only to the northern or southern borders, vis-à-vis Hezbollah or Hamas, but also to Iran, even though it lies thousands of kilometers away.
Over the past four decades, the Iranian regime has proven that there is no enemy more dangerous, determined or resolute when it comes to Israel. Its goal is clear: our destruction. It relentlessly pursues this objective through the buildup of military power and the development of missile and nuclear capabilities. To its credit, it makes no effort to conceal these intentions, openly proclaiming them on every possible stage.
Every attempt to engage with this regime, to reach agreements or understandings with it, or even to strike it, has failed to slow down, and certainly not to stop, its march toward missiles and nuclear weapons as part of its plan to destroy Israel. Therefore, if Israel wishes to survive, it must not only hope for but actively work toward the fall of the regime in Tehran.
