The generally accepted view in Israel is that President Donald Trump's loss in the latest elections is good for the United States but bad for Israel.
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Besides relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem and brokering the Abraham Accords, Trump also showed support for Israel by withdrawing the US from the nuclear agreement with Iran. However, as soon as President Joe Biden took office, he announced his intentions to reinstate the deal without any changes.
So what does that mean for Israel? Is it good or bad news? Let's clarify.
Let me remind you of the basics. The agreement was reached between Iran and the United Nations Security Council's five permanent members, namely China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, along with Germany and the European Union. It limits Iran's ability to install centrifuges, enrich uranium and conduct nuclear research, but most importantly, it includes close monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency of all Iranian nuclear facilities.
This may come as a surprise, but many in the American defense establishment, even in the Trump administration, favored the agreement and opposed the withdrawal. Many Israeli defense officials were of the same opinion. Among them are dozens of formers generals in the US military, former Mossad and Shin Bet chiefs, and nuclear experts. When Gen. Gadi Eizenkot was the IDF chief of staff, he said that there were no signs that Iran was violating the clauses of the nuclear agreement.
One of the primary opponents of the deal is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. What is his central argument? That the agreement is not comprehensive: it only delays Iran's military nuclear project but does not eliminate it. Also, it does not restrict Iran's military activities in the region or prevent it from developing ballistic missiles.
In May 2018, Trump withdrew from the agreement, which, among other things, came as a result of the pressure Netanyahu applied on the Republican Party. He managed to get Trump to buy into this controversial move, which came at the expense of polarizing American support for Israel and breaking the two countries' diplomatic norms. Was it worth the price?
Two years later, the effects of the withdrawal are clear: even after placing sanctions on Iran and on companies that trade with it, the move did not produce the results opposers of the agreement were hoping for. Iran's economy did not collapse. Internal resistance from the republic did not increase. Iran's supporters in the Middle East remain strong. All the while, America's standing in the world is dwindling. This is one of the reasons the US was given the cold shoulder by the members of the Security Council when it tried to extend the embargo on arms sales to Iran. The anti-nuclear deal view did not withstand the test of time.
The justified fear of a nuclear Iran does not belong to Netanyahu and Israel alone. It is shared by all countries in the Middle East and the world. Trump's withdrawal from the agreement weakened the pragmatic and moderate forces whose goal is to resolve problems in the agreement, in the region, and in the world.
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