The 12-day war - or perhaps the First Iran War - did not entirely eliminate the Iranian cancer threatening to metastasize across the region. But the blows Israel, with US backing, dealt Tehran have, for now, halted Iran's nuclear race and delivered a major setback to its ambition of establishing a zone of influence stretching from its borders through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the shores of Gaza. From this corridor, the Iranians sought to advance their vision of destroying the State of Israel, a vision that inspired Yahya Sinwar to conceive and execute the deadly October 7 terrorist assault.
With Iran's defeat, the reconfiguration of the Middle East has been completed. It began with the dismantling of Hamas as a regular military force and governing entity in the Gaza Strip, continued with Hezbollah's heavy losses in Lebanon and the downfall of Bashar Assad in Syria, and now includes the return of the Iranian genie to its bottle. Iran, which even in its own eyes was seen as a powerful regional force capable of deterring and threatening its neighbors, has been severely wounded. It has been exposed as a vulnerable, infiltrated, and weak state that can barely defend itself. In that sense, the war has returned it to its natural proportions - a country whose leaders talk a lot, but have very little to back their words.
Just two decades ago, at the start of the Arab Spring, and even before that, when Arab states, led by Egypt, became mired in internal social and economic issues and ceased to be influential regional players, it seemed that the vacuum they left would be filled by two key actors: Iran and Turkey. In the 1950s and '60s, Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser led the Arab world, and now it appeared that the ayatollahs in Tehran and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara were set to take the helm, leading the region under the banners of Shiite and Sunni Islam. But the grandiose dreams of reviving the Persian and Ottoman empires have now come crashing down.
The biggest loser from the collapse of the so-called resistance axis and its fight against Israel is, of course, Iran, which has lost nearly everything: its nuclear program, much of its military capabilities, and the strongholds throughout the region into which it had invested hundreds of billions of dollars over the years.
But Turkey, too, finds itself among the losers. In the conflict between Israel and its enemies, Ankara sided with the wrong camp, and with the wrong side of history. Although it limited itself to rhetoric and avoided action, it has now become clear that Turkey is not as strong and influential as it claimed. It lacks the economic resources to buy influence and control, and in terms of military, operational, and technological capabilities, it is far behind.
In the Middle East, people know how to distinguish between bluster - Erdoğan's specialty - and action, especially displays of strength and power, which are the only currencies that command respect here. And so, Erdoğan talks and talks, while Israel and Trump's America act.
Russia and China also belong on the list of losers. Their eagerness to counter the US led them to adopt hostile policies toward Israel and to express sympathy for its enemies, Iran and Hamas. This approach has brought them more harm than benefit and ultimately exposed their lack of any real diplomatic, economic, or military clout in the region.
In this new Middle East, the path to Washington once again goes through Jerusalem. Only nations committed to stability and peace - including peace with Israel, as exemplified by al-Julani's Syria - will be able to promote their security and elevate their regional and global status.
All that remains is to see whether these sidelined powers - Russia, China, and Turkey - will internalize the lesson and draw the necessary conclusions.
