1.
At 5:15 a.m. on October 7, about an hour and a quarter before the massacre, amid strong intelligence indicators coming from the Gaza Strip, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar summarized his professional assessment in a document that reveals the psychology of the organization under his leadership.
The notion before us of a "tense routine," the Shin Bet chief wrote, was "a less likely assumption." Was this a Hamas exercise? That was also deemed "a less likely possibility." And what about "a move toward a broad campaign," namely the horrific scenario that ultimately unfolded later that day? Bar wrote that "the likelihood is low given the absence of an intelligence indication." Woe to the watchman at the gate. So what was left? Perhaps a "localized incident," and even that was hedged with the words "cannot be ruled out."
2.
After discounting most of the possibilities that could explain the heightened activity among the enemy, a "leading assumption" was set: that Hamas feared "our offensive activity." In other words, they were on alert purely for defensive reasons. Therefore, it was important not to inflame the region. How?
Ronen Bar recommended "readiness to thwart an offensive incident," defined as "covert, medium-level readiness, so as not to create a miscalculation." The term refers to a situation in which a state or leader takes a certain step on the assumption that the other side will respond weakly, but in reality, the other side responds with unexpected force. Russia invaded Ukraine under the mistaken assumption that it would capture Kyiv quickly and that the West would not unite. I remember meeting France's ambassador to Italy in Florence a few days after the invasion. His face was pale. He believed Russia would reach the border of Belarus and Poland and spoke of fears of World War III.
3.
The Shin Bet chief thus warned that if Israel were to take overt defensive measures, this could be misinterpreted and lead to the outbreak of a military campaign. Therefore, Israel should "avoid broad activity on our part in order to prevent miscalculation." In short, do not make the enemy nervous, lest it miscalculate and launch an attack against us. He also warned that "intelligence collection on Shabbat is unusual" and could arouse suspicion, and therefore "care must be taken not to create a miscalculation through imprudent moves."
4.
It is hard to believe. This is the heart of the accursed "concept." The assumption that seeped into the consciousness of almost all Israeli security chiefs over generations, from Oslo onward, was that on the other side there is a bitter enemy, but one whose considerations are rational, and that as long as its life proceeds amid relative economic stability, it will have no interest in launching a war that would destroy it. Therefore, it was vital not to give it reasons to do so.
As a result, the border with Gaza was left exposed. Golani Brigade soldiers were not on alert at dawn. No heavy equipment was brought close to the fence. And of course, the prime minister was not awakened. Incidentally, contrary to the Shin Bet chief's claim, this document reached the prime minister's military secretariat at 9:37 a.m., deep into the massacre.
5.
The security establishment did not want to confront the enemy "by mistake." About two and a half months before the massacre, a former Shin Bet chief, Nadav Argaman, expressed himself in stark terms: "I am very concerned that Netanyahu will try to 'steal' a war in order to unite the public under his leadership, or to delay the legal proceedings against him. He must not be given that credit. He has lost his legitimacy to lead the State of Israel into war."
Do you understand? Had Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided on a preemptive strike in the spirit of the Six-Day War, open rebellion within the army and the security system would likely have intensified even further. But that is not the main point. The point lies in the thinking of Argaman and many of his peers: the belief that Hamas, a terrorist organization, had no interest in entering a military campaign that would destroy it.
The prophet Isaiah described this in the words: "The wisdom of its wise shall perish, and the understanding of its prudent shall be hidden."
And so, without learning from the past, the words of Winston Churchill from another era were fulfilled: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war."
