With two months remaining to the do-over election, it seems the 2019 campaign is starting to take shape. Next weekend, the political parties will submit their lists of candidates for the Knesset and turn many questions marks into exclamation points. And yet this is, after all, just a game politicians play against themselves. In an election, it is the interaction with the public that determines the outcome. There has never been a precedent for a repeat election being held so soon and it is possible that all the campaigns and all the advanced preparations will collapse in the moment of truth.
In this election, the Likud is facing its greatest challenge ever. Not one poll has shown the Right garnering enough Knesset seats to ensure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power. It seems the Likud has yet to find the necessary antidote to the virus planted by Yisrael Beytenu's Avigdor Lieberman, who has taken on the role of the political figure who will steal Knesset seats from the Right for the Left. If Netanyahu doesn't have a trick up his sleeve he can pull out soon, Lieberman will succeed where Yesh Atid and now Blue and White party leader Yair Lapid failed.
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The Likud's election campaign focuses on Netanyahu's rich experience and is effective in emphasizing his strengths over the disadvantages of his rivals. But it is not enough to get people to the ballot box come Election Day. There needs to be a very good reason for millions of people to show up and vote months after they last exercised that right. And if that weren't enough, after 10 and a half years in which Netanyahu has been in power, it is hard to imagine his loyal supporters would see any good reason for them to vote. After all, their sense that what was will continue to be is stronger than ever. They have grown so accustomed to his leading the government over the years, it will be difficult to convince them there might be another outcome that does not see Netanyahu maintain his control of the government in this election.
On the other side, over at Blue and White, a sluggish campaign is being waged. On the Left, a new king – Israel Democratic Party leader Ehud Barak – has risen, taking the lead in terms of the sharpness of his message, and turning Blue and White's planned negative campaign against Netanyahu into a sleepy and tiring affair. Fortunately for Blue and White, despite his success in getting the aggressive message across every stage and taking over the agenda, this success is less visible in the polls. Barak, who contemplated conquering the entire camp and even serving as its head, must soon decide whether to join up with another party that will carry him on its wings and see the IDP gain relatively little in return, or leave the political arena altogether. Should he take the latter option, this most recent comeback would be the shortest in the country's history. It would also see Barak, once again, leave behind him a trail of bruised, battered, and beaten supporters who tied their fate to his, as if this hadn't happened countless times before.
Labor party head Amir Peretz, who joined forces with Gesher party's Orly Levy-Abekasis, sent a direct message to members of the left-wing camp that he was now looking rightward, convinced this will work out the same way it did for him in the 2006 election, when he stole votes from Netanyahu, leaving him with only 12 Knesset seats. Now, too, Peretz intends to focus his efforts on bringing over votes from the Right. The Left, both in the Meretz party and Barak's camp, attacked Peretz for the move. But if he can pull it off, they will be standing in line to thank him for singlehandedly creating an obstructive bloc of 61 Knesset seats against a Netanyahu government. If he fails, he will always have the option of joining the coalition government and in two years becoming a realistic candidate for the presidency.
Rabbi Rafi Peretz is also in a precarious position as the United Right party he heads continues to call for his deposition and former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked to be put in the No.1 slot in his place. In the meantime, Peretz is hanging on, but over the course of the next two weeks, things could transpire that might not necessarily move the right-wing cart in the direction he would like.
