Neither Israel nor Hamas emerged victorious from Friday's flare-up on the Gaza Strip border. Hamas may have blinked first and had even pledged to cease its arson terrorism campaign, but for the first time since Operation Protective Edge in 2014, its operatives managed to kill an Israeli soldier.
Israel's forceful response was able to temporarily resort calm to the area, but it is doubtful this would do much to push away the next – inevitable – war with Gaza.
Friday's clash came as little surprise, as the tensions simmering on the border since March 30 have been steadily escalating. But it is because of the tragic results of this latest flare-up that we have to appreciate the military's tactical deployment so far, as it has been able to avoid fatalities during weeks of bloody border riots, which included numerous attempts to breach the security fence and stage terrorist attacks.
A 100% success rate is impossible to maintain over time, which is why Israel has been focusing, alongside attempts to defuse tensions, on intensifying its efforts to deter Hamas. This achieved partial success and last week, Hamas pledged to scale back, and eventually stop, its kite terrorism campaign.
The killing of Staff Sgt. Aviv Levi, 21, Friday, changed things and Israel decided it was time to pull no punches, launching aerial and ground strikes against terrorist targets in Gaza.
As usual, the IDF spared no effort to avoid civilian casualties, but it still exacted a heavy price from Hamas, razing major assets in Gaza, including three battalion headquarters. This prompted Hamas to reach out to Egypt and asked it to broker a truce.
The terrorist group pledged to rein in all terrorist activities if Israel ceased its airstrike. Cairo relayed the message and, after consultations, Israel decided to agree – but not before making it clear to Hamas – via Egypt – that any incident of arson terrorist would trigger Israeli strikes.
This message was backed by the Egypt who, for its part, made it clear to Hamas leaders that it has had enough and if they persist, Cairo would also impose harsh sanctions on Gaza.
U.N. Middle East envoy Nickolay Mladenov also weighed in with both parties in an effort to avoid escalation, and so another tenuous truce was achieved. The cease-fire, however, does little to resolve the dilemma with which both sides are struggling.
Hamas may have committed to a lull, but now it has to deliver and it will undoubtedly want something in return. The U.N. and Egypt are working on an aid package to Gaza, but it will take time until it is finalized and put into action. Meanwhile, Hamas is facing a myriad of problems in Gaza and it will have to let its operatives blow off some steam.
Israel is also facing a conundrum. While the argument that you do not launch a war and place soldiers – and potentially civilians – in harm's way over incendiary kites still holds water, it is obvious that avoiding a conflict with Gaza also comes with a price.
Stern warnings aside, it is highly unlikely that Israel will go to war over kite terrorism. It is not the sporadic incident that will be scrutinized from now on but the overall trend. Hamas bears the burden of proof, but Israel is fast approaching the day when it will have to ask itself what it would like to see – and achieve – with respect to the Gaza Strip from a diplomatic, economic and military standpoints, and what it is willing to do to achieve these goals.
Friday's flare-up proved this discussion can no longer be avoided, as the only alternative to it is war. Even if peace and quiet are restored to the southern border, the Gaza problem will not go away on its own. The recent clash on the border may have bought both sides some time, but not very much.
