Now that the Knesset has only 21 days to try and form a government, given that both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz have failed to do so, it was Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman who debunked two scenarios that could have taken place over the next three weeks: A Blue and White-led minority government, and a narrow Likud-led.
On Thursday night, Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit, with his decision to indict Netanyahu, took the third option, namely forming a national unity government, off the table.
What this means, in a nutshell, is that Israel is, in all likelihood, heading for a third general election, which will most likely be held in March 2020.
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Unlike the Left, which probably would have deposed its leader the second the attorney general finished his statement, the Likud rallied around Netanyahu, as it seeks to protect him from the external dark forces that are persecuting him.
For this reason, anyone who challenges Netanyahu for Likud's leadership is bound to lose – unless Mendelblit rules that the next government cannot be formed by a candidate with an indictment hanging over his head. In that case, Likud will have no choice but to put forth another leader ahead of the third elections.
The Left and other opposition parties predictably called for Netanyahu to resign, and promises a flurry of High Court of Justice petitions of he fails to comply. These calls do not permeate the right-wing bloc so Netanyahu can rest easy – no one there will try to impeach him. This means that his political survival is his to rule on, as the law leaves it to up him to decide whether to vacate his seat at this time.
Much of what will happen next depends of how the rightist MKs apply their influence with regards to Netanyahu's immunity.
Under the law, any MK can apply for immunity from an indictment, but needs a majority in the Knesset's House Committee for it to come into force. It may look like Netanyahu doesn't have the necessary majority, but this is where Lieberman could surprise everyone.
Netanyahu has been careful to keep the channels of communications with Yisrael Beytenu's leader open. Everyone knows that there is no love lost between Lieberman and Netanyahu, but Lieberman's low opinion of the judiciary is also a matter of record, so there is really no telling how he could vote on the matter.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu launched what appeared to be his next election campaign. This one will likely focus heavily on the ill deeds of law enforcement agencies.
Until now the protest over what some perceive as judicial bias was relegated to sporadic statements, harsh criticism on social media, and the occasional demonstration, but that is all about to change. This protest now has a leader, and it will most likely dominate the daily agenda until the next elections are over.
